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Non-OPEC oil supply forecast revised down

Oil&Gas Materials 11 December 2019 18:51 (UTC +04:00)
Non-OPEC oil supply forecast revised down

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.11

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Non-OPEC oil supply forecast has been revised down by 75,000 barrels per day (b/d) for the fourth quarter of 2019, Trend reports citing OPEC December Oil Market Report (MOMR).

The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate for 2019 remained unchanged at 1.82 mb/d, for an annual average of 64.30 mb/d.

The downward revisions to production data from the UK, other OECD Europe, India and Indonesia were fully offset by upward production adjustments in Thailand and Russia. US liquids output in 3Q19 was revised up due to higher-than-expected output in September.

“In contrast, the supply forecast for 4Q19 was revised down by 75 tb/d. Hence, the expected y-o-y growth of 1.62 mb/d remained unchanged. The US, Brazil, China, Canada, Australia and the UK are forecast to be the key drivers of growth in 2019, while Mexico and Norway are expected to experience the largest declines. The non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast for 2020 also remained unchanged from last month’s assessment and will grow by 2.17 mb/d for an average of 66.46 mb/d,” reads the report.

The upward revision in the UK oil supply forecast was offset by a downward revision in Russia’s supply. The US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Australia, Russia and Kazakhstan are expected to be the main growth drivers for next year, while Mexico, Indonesia, Egypt and Colombia are forecast to see the largest declines. The 2020 non-OPEC supply forecast remains subject to many uncertainties, mainly the trend of investment discipline by US independents, the timing of debottlenecking of pipeline constraints in Canada, drilling and completion activity in the US, and Mexico’s efforts to overcome natural decline.

OPEC natural gas liquids (NGL) production in 2019 is expected to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.80 mb/d. In 2020, OPEC NGLs are forecast to grow by 0.03 mb/d y-o-y to average 4.83 mb/d. In November, OPEC crude oil production fell by 193 tb/d m-o-m to average 29.55 mb/d, according to secondary sources. Non-OPEC supply, including OPEC NGLs, rose by 0.61 mb/d m-o-m, to average 70.22 mb/d, up by 1.28 mb/d y-o-y. As a result, preliminary data indicates that global oil supply increased in November by 0.41 mb/d m-o-m to average 99.78 mb/d.

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Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

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