BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.14
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Europe gas consumption in the mid-term is forecast to call for additional volumes, but after the 2030s will experience a slow decline due to renewables’ advancement and increased energy efficiency measures that offset the benefits of coal-to-gas switching, according to the Global Gas Outlook of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), Trend reports.
As a result, overall gas demand growth will be relatively stagnant (-0.1 percent per annum), achieving 504 bcm by 2050, with the most interesting growth prospects coming from the transport sector, according to the report.
Europe will account for around 8 percent of the global gas consumption in 2050, according to GECF estimates.
Demand growth in the Eurasia region is expected to be relatively slow, developing by 0.5 percent per annum from 638 bcm in 2018 to 748 bcm by 2050, due to the huge potential for efficiency gains in the power and heat generation sectors, reads the report.
However, as GECF says, expansion of gas-to-chemicals, petrochemicals and non-metallic minerals production will balance gas savings, entailing incremental rise in the region.
By 2050, Eurasia will consume around 13 percent of global gas demand, the report says.
“Gas demand in the Middle East is forecast to grow by 1.3 percent per annum, peaking at 795 bcm by 2050 (from 528 bcm in 2018), and to be concentrated in the industry and the power sectors, which will be the frontrunners as many countries switch away from oil to gas in order to maintain and grow oil exports while using domestic gas more efficiently. This region will represent 13 percent of global gas demand in 2050.”
Global natural gas demand is forecast to increase at an annual average growth rate of 1.3 percent, from 3,924 bcm in 2018 to about 5,966 bcm by 2050, according to GECF.
“It will correspond to an overall rise of 52 percent, an additional 2,042 bcm over the outlook period. Asia Pacific, North America and the Middle East markets are projected to be where the bulk of future demand growth will take place, accounting for 39 percent, 24 percent and 13 percent respectively of the total gas increments to 2050.”
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