Dated Brent to struggle to stay above $40/b for remainder of Q3

Dated Brent to struggle to stay above $40/b for remainder of Q3

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Aug.5

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Dated Brent will struggle to stay above $40/b for remainder of Q3 as fundamentals face headwinds, S&P Global Platts told Trend.

“Physical markets face headwinds on a fundamental basis. S&P Global Platts Analytics continues to see Dated Brent struggling to stay above $40/b over next couple of months, but rising towards $50/b by end-2021,” said S&P.

The agency said that supply is on the rise, but demand growth faces a slowdown on worsening COVID. “Stocks are bloated, Chinese buying is set to slow, and global oil refining is heading into turnaround season.”

“Global oil supply is on the rise from June lows, but US supply is set to decline and the call on OPEC+ will grow through 2021. Saudi-Russian interactions are key to watch in coming weeks/months, given they have divergent price aspirations. Non-OPEC shut-ins have started to return and OPEC+ agreed to taper production cuts for August. But US supply declines are inevitable and we see growing reliance on OPEC+ barrels. “

S&P believes that global oil supply is forecast down 6.8 million b/d in 2020, up nearly 4 million b/d in 2021.

“OPEC+ is cautiously increasing supply now. Russia is more comfortable at $40-50/b oil while Saudi Arabia likely prefers closer to $60/b, thus Saudi-Russian interactions will be key for oil markets and prices near term. Also watch for rising geopolitical risks through year-end. “

As for demand, S&P said that increasing COVID-19 infections remain a concern which clouds the prospects for 2021.

“We now see total demand in 2021 to be 1.5 million b/d lower than 2019. H1 2020 turned out to be better than expected because of China (May and June), India (June) and Western Europe, but we now see growth in H2 2020 to be slower. Oil demand is forecast to contract by 8.2 million b/d in 2020 on the back of a GDP contraction at 3.7 percent. Looking to 2021, expect global oil demand to grow by 6.7 million b/d, or 7 percent, on GDP growth of 5.5 percent, but the total remains well below 2019 levels.”

---

Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

Subscribe to Trend in Google News! Subscribe
Kazakhstan ratifies agreements on military-technical assistance with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan ratifies agreements on military-technical assistance with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan, Tajikistan to attract small, medium businesses to joint projects
Turkmenistan, Tajikistan to attract small, medium businesses to joint projects
Kyrgyz border service reports shots from Tajikistan
Kyrgyz border service reports shots from Tajikistan
Loading Bars
Latest
Bangladesh, India: Celebrating 50 years of friendship
Georgia's coal production up
Uzbekistan shares data on sales of oil and gas products in 11M2021
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan sign trade contracts and bilateral agreements
Azerbaijan shares forecast on volume of oil production from ACG field for 2022
Iran records increase in cargo transportation via Bushehr International Airport
bp presented laboratory to be named after Nobel Prize winner
Azerbaijan provides with insurance payments heirs of martyrs, soldiers wounded due to Armenian provocation on Nov. 16
Azerbaijan projects growth in gas production from Shah Deniz field in 2022
Iran sees decrease in number of new mines
Volume of loaded/unloaded cargo in Iran’s Anzali port climbs
EIA names factors triggering wider spread between sweet and sour crude oils
Azerbaijan to install seismic stations in liberated lands until 2025
VISA talks investments in dev’t of its own IT-technologies (Exclusive)
‘Tripartite contract’ could turn Iran into regional transit center - Iranian president
Iranian President talks about nuclear discussions
Financial market of Azerbaijan – review of week’s main events
Equinor to acquire 45% stake in Noriker Power Limited
Iran's SATBA reveals details of country's renewable energy generation
Iran's NIORDC to sign contract for producing dual-fuel taxis with local manufacturer
Private investors in Iran apply to boost renewable energy development countrywide
New economic construction must be ensured in Azerbaijan's Karabakh - president's special representative
Azerbaijan reveals insurance payments to heirs of servicemen who died in helicopter crash
Azerbaijan pays great attention to dev’t of innovations, technologies - executive power
Iran to unveil plan for development of rail fleet for its mines
TAP’s technical forward capacity by Dec.12
Only innovative technology-based enterprises to function in Azerbaijan's liberated lands - deputy minister
Physical gas flows, nominations at TAP’s interconnections
Azerbaijan creating innovative financial, banking services in Karabakh
Participants of Second Karabakh war, families of martyrs living, working in Azerbaijan’s liberated territories to be provided with benefits
Negotiations with several enterprises to attract investors to Aghdam industrial park nearing completion – deputy minister (PHOTO)
Iran eyes increase in activities in Chabahar port
Iran records increase in exports from Gilan Province
Turkey discloses cargo shipments via its ports from Bulgaria in 10M2021
Azerbaijan eyes several directions for innovative development of liberated areas - deputy minister
UK to require travelers from Azerbaijan to submit negative PCR test
Iran sets increase of monthly salary in budget bill for next year
Decision makers in Iran realize going forward without JCPOA is wrong - analyst
Iran negotiating with Russia to lift bell pepper export restrictions
Pace of LNG supply growth in Asia forecast to slow down
Mariana Vasileva expresses gratitude to President Ilham Aliyev, First Vice-President Mehriban Aliyeva
Iran set to reform its insurance sector
Iran relying on domestic car manufacturers to increase production by 2025
Global LNG sector poised to post healthy export growth this year
Georgia releases COVID-19 data for December 6
Iran planning to increase steel production for domestic needs and export
Iran to reform rules for startup companies to participate in stock market deals
Azerbaijani currency rates for December 6
Iran hopes to raise local car manufacturing
Iranian currency rates for December 6
CAMEX International launches cargo airline in Georgia
Overall index of the Tehran Stock Exchange drops on December 5
Turkey reveals cargo traffic via its ports from US for 10M2021
Azerbaijan shows footage from Kalbajar's liberated Kechiligaya village (VIDEO)
Uzbekistan shares domestic COVID-19 data for December 5
Turkey discloses number of docking ships at Bandirma port for 10M2021
Azerbaijan discloses turnover of investment companies for 11M2021
Uzbek Direct Investment Fund and South Korean company co-op to attract investments
Cargo movements in Iran’s Bushehr port up
Iran shares data on exports via customs of Semnan Province
Azerbaijan interested in Turkish "Hürkuş" trainer aircraft - Turkish Defense Industry
Cargo transportation via Iran's Kerman International Airport soars
IRICA reveals data on Iran’s saffron exports
Weekly review of Azerbaijani oil prices
Poor weather hampers search and rescue efforts at Indonesia volcano
S.Korean president's approval rating rises to 40.5 pct: poll
Iran's trade turnover with Azerbaijan booming - IRICA
Kazakhstan adds 632 new daily cases of COVID-19
Bob Dole, longtime U.S. senator, presidential candidate, dies at 98
Hamilton wins wild Saudi GP to set up F1 title showdown
Turkey confirms 19,357 daily COVID-19 cases
Islamic State fighters kill five in attack near northern Iraqi village
Omicron cases in UK rise by 50 pct in one day
Twelve Niger soldiers killed in clashes with militants
China donates Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccines to Somalia
Cases of Omicron variant rise to 11 in Israel
Fire rages on cargo ship carrying timber off Sweden
Germany plans to make vaccination compulsory for some jobs
Number of Turkish citizens seeking job in Georgia notably grows
German companies sign contracts with Azerbaijan in railway construction
Erdogan-Al Thani meeting to boost Turkey-Qatar ties: Ambassador
Myanmar court to give first rulings in Suu Kyi trial
Erdogan to chair Turkey-Qatar Supreme Strategic Committee in Doha
Iran stresses need for long-term cooperation with Kyrgyzstan
35.6% of Georgian adult population fully vaccinated
Indonesia Semeru volcanic eruption kills 14; dozens injured
Three skiers killed and two injured in Austria avalanche
Uzbekistan shares data on interest expenses of banking sector
Flights from Iran’s Abadan International Airport increasing
Germany's Free Democrats back coalition agreement
Arab Coalition destroys 14 vehicles, kills more than 115 Houthis
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price continues to rise
Kyrgyz Cabinet aims to increase share of electric vehicles in country
Azerbaijan shares data on number of vaccinated citizens
Azerbaijan confirms 1,394 more COVID-19 cases, 1,791 recoveries
Kazakhstan increases petroleum oil exports to France
Volume of cargo loaded/unloaded in Iran’s Bandar Lengeh port decreases
Iran boosts aluminum ingots production
COVID-19: 11 areas of Kazakhstan in ‘green zone’
Cargo train services launch between Georgia, China
All news