JP Morgan revises down global oil demand forecast

JP Morgan revises down global oil demand forecast

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Aug.10

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

The US JP Morgan Bank has revised down 2H20 global oil demand forecast by 1.5 mbd, Trend reports citing the US JP Morgan Bank.

“We previously forecasted that global oil demand would grow by a further 6.3 mbd between July and December, with 2.0 mbd of growth coming from diesel/gasoil, 1.6 mbd coming from gasoline and 1.7 mbd coming from jet fuel and other kerosene. After reassessing our underlying sector-level assumptions, we have lowered our growth estimate over the balance of the year to 4.4 mbd, cutting our 3Q20 global demand forecasts by 850 kbd and our 4Q20 forecasts by 2.1 mbd in the process. Of this total growth, we now see gasoline demand only growing by about 670 kbd while jet fuel and other kerosene demand grows by 940 kbd over the balance of the year. Diesel, while trimmed, still contributes the bulk of the growth (1.6 mbd) as we believe it will continue to be less affected by lockdowns and stalling mobility. Overall, we now see global demand moving from around 90 mbd in July to 94.4 mbd in December, with 4Q20 averaging at a level roughly 7.1 mbd lower yoy,” reads a report released by JP Morgan.

While JP Morgan has cut its jet fuel and kerosene assumptions slightly in 3Q20 (60 kbd), the bulk of the damage is in 4Q20 where the Bank has lowered its estimates by about 440 kbd.

“Last month we estimate global jet fuel consumption was slightly more than half (55 percent) of 2019’s level and we previously thought demand could rebound to about 72 percent of year ago levels. However, while we still embed a recovery (global flight activity has picked up markedly in the last few weeks), we think our previous assumptions were a bit too strong and only see global jet fuel and other kerosene demand recovering to around 5.2 mbd by December, or ~65 percent of last year’s levels,” reads the report.

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Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

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