BP: Oil use in transport to peak in mid-to-late 2020s
BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.14
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The use of oil in transport peaks in the mid-to-late 2020s in all three Scenarios of BP (BAU, Rapid, and Net Zero), Trend reports citing BP.
The demand for oil for road transport in emerging markets continues to increase until the early 2030s in Rapid and Net Zero, and the late 2030s in BAU, but this is increasingly offset by falls in the developed world.
The share of oil in total final consumption falls from over 90 percent of transport demand in 2018 to around 80 percent by 2050 in BAU, 40 percent in Rapid and just 20 percent in Net Zero. The main counterpart is the increasing use of electricity, especially in passenger cars and light and medium-duty trucks, along with hydrogen, biofuels and gas. The share of electricity in end energy use in transport increases to between 30 and 40 percent by 2050 in Rapid and Net Zero.
The growth in primary energy used in transport in all three scenarios stems entirely from the developing world, as increasing prosperity in developing Asia, Africa and Latin America supports greater demand for passenger and freight transportation. Energy use in transport in the developed world is broadly flat.
The demand for passenger and commercial transportation increases strongly over the Outlook, with road and air travel doubling in all three scenarios. The growth in final energy required to fuel this increased travel is offset by significant gains in vehicle efficiency, especially in passenger cars, trucks and aviation.
The gains in energy efficiency are partially disguised by a shift away from oil towards the increasing use of electricity and hydrogen in transport. In particular, the conversion process used to produce these energy carriers boosts the total amount of primary energy absorbed by the transport sector.
The shift towards electricity and hydrogen is most pronounced in Rapid and Net Zero, where overall primary energy increases by around 25 percent and 35 percent respectively by 2050. Primary energy in transport increases by almost 25 percent in BAU, with slower gains in energy efficiency offset by a smaller shift away from oil.
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