BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.6
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Oil prices are forecast to remain close to current levels and average $44/ bbl in 2021 before rising to $50/bbl in 2022, Trend reports citing the World Bank (WB).
The main risk to this forecast relates to the evolution of the pandemic, with oil demand particularly susceptible to lockdown measures and reduced mobility; however, positive vaccine news has reduced this risk somewhat, according to the Bank.
WB estimates that crude oil prices averaged $41/bbl in 2020, a 34 percent fall from 2019.
“Oil demand fell 9 percent last year—the steepest one-year decline on record—as a result of pandemic-control measures and the associated plunge in global demand, which was partly offset by historically large production cuts among OPEC+,” reads the latest WB report.
This is while the the US JP Morgan Bank expects Brent prices to rise to $50 per barrel in 2021 and $62 per barrel in 2022.
Brent prices will be equal to $43/bbl in Q1, $49/bbl in Q2, $51/bbl in Q3 and $56/bbl in Q4 2021.
Brent prices will peak at $67/bbl in Q2 of 2022, while in Q1, Q3 and Q4 this figure will be equal to $61/bbl, $64/bbl and $55/bbl, respectively.
As for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, JP Morgan forecasts WTI prices to rise to $47/bbl in 2021, while the quarterly prices will be equal to $41/bbl, $47/bbl, $48/bbl and $53/bbl.
WTI prices will keep on rising to $58/bbl in 2022, according to JP Morgan. The forecasts for the four quarters are as follows: $57/bbl, $63/bbl, $60/bbl and $51/bbl.
---
Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn