BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.24
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Marketed natural gas production is expected to expand by more than 2 tcm by 2050 to reach close to 6 tcm p.a., Trend reports with reference to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
Nevertheless, the resources used in the production of this gas are expected to change. For example, currently around 11 percent of global gas marketed production is sourced from associated gas, but this share will fall to 6 percent by 2050. This is not only due to a fall in oil production, but it is, to some extent, because of a change in the usage of associated natural gas. This means that in the future, a higher portion of associated natural gas will be used for EOR measures, which will lead to less natural gas coming to the market. Therefore, the level of marketed associated gas production will decrease,” reads a GECF report.
Currently, the volume of marketed associated gas output is more than 420 bcm, according to the organization’s estimates. “However, the total volume of this product is much higher, but can be counted in gross production figures as it falls into the categories of flared gas, losses and gas for EOR. With the depletion of oil fields, the need for EOR will be felt ever more keenly.”
GECF believes that unconventional production will also take a vital role in the future of energy supply. “It is forecast that more than 2 tcm will be produced annually from unconventional gas resources, of which 1.5 tcm will be shale gas by 2050. This expansion will be driven by advancement in technologies, and consequently, the reduced cost of production. It is expected that by 2050 one third of total gas output will be sourced from unconventional resources. This includes the YTF unconventional resources that need investments and policy support to explore. The main contributing region to unconventional production is North America which is forecast to contribute around three-quarters of production, mostly in the form of shale gas and to a lesser extent tight gas sourced from basins in the US and Canada.”
The Asia Pacific region will be the second-largest contributor with considerable shale and tight gas sourced by China and coalbed methane by Australia. India is also forecast to contribute a small share of the total unconventional production in the Asia Pacific region. As can be seen in the Figure 4.12, YTF unconventional sources are forecast to contribute to total production from 2025, and it is expected that by 2050, 20 percent of annual unconventional production will be sourced from this type of resource. The Outlook also expect that more than three-quarters of total unconventional production will be produced from new projects by 2050.
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