BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 22
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Oil demand is expected to be above 2020 levels for the rest of 2021, Trend reports with reference to Wood Mackenzie.
Nevertheless, oil demand in the current quarter has been running roughly in line with the first quarter of 2020.
By the fourth quarter of next year, oil demand is expected to hit a new record high, above the previous peak in the third quarter of 2019, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Behind the volatility of crude prices, however, the foundations of a post-pandemic recovery in energy demand are taking shape. Worldwide, the numbers of new Covid-19 cases and deaths reported to the World Health Organization are well down from their levels in late 2020 and early 2021, although new cases have picked up somewhat in recent weeks.
That number is expected to keep growing. The eligibility criteria for vaccination are being steadily expanded, and governments are promising that availability will continue to expand.
Demand for gas is also growing. Over 2020, demand was down only about 1 percent on 2019, Wood Mackenzie’s Global Gas Tool shows. Low prices encouraged switching from coal to gas for power generation, and a warm summer in the northern hemisphere meant strong electricity demand for air-conditioning. By the second half of the year, gas demand was rebounding strongly in China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region that successfully controlled the virus. After that slight decline in 2020, we are forecasting continued growth this year. Global gas is expected to rise by 2% in 2021, to a new record high.
“The experience of past pandemics suggests that although they can have lasting impacts on society, they can very rarely outweigh the fundamental forces of economics and technology. While there will be bumps along the way, the projected recovery in energy demand over the next couple of years looks like being further evidence for that rule,” said the company.
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