European oil demand sees largest fall since April 2020

Oil&Gas Materials 15 April 2021 11:32 (UTC +04:00)
European oil demand sees largest fall since April 2020

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Apr.15

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

OECD (Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development) oil demand fell 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) month-on-month, and 4.8 mb/d year-on-year, in January, the last month for which full data is available, Trend reports citing the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“Demand in Europe declined by 1.2 mb/d on the month, the largest fall registered since April 2020, as new social distancing measures to fight the Covid-19 pandemic were introduced. Consumption also declined seasonally in the Americas and in Asia Oceania. For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, in January the y-o-y deficit in demand was larger in Europe than in the Americas, as a result of tighter social distancing measures and a slower rollout of vaccines,” reads the latest IEA report.

OECD Americas oil consumption fell by 500 kb/d m-o-m in January, more or less in line with seasonal expectations, and was down around 2.2 mb/d y-o-y, according to the agency’s estimates.

“Most of the fall occurred in gasoline (-390 kb/d m-o-m) as rising Covid-19 infections and cold temperatures incentivised people to stay at home. Demand was down in the US (-240 kb/d m-o-m), Canada (-80 kb/d), Mexico (-140 kb/d) and Chile (-40 kb/d).

Preliminary figures for February and March point to a m-o-m rise in US oil demand of 70 kb/d and 110 kb/d, respectively (see US fuel deliveries jump in tandem with falling Covid cases). New US Covid-19 infections, which were as high as 250 000 per day at the end of January, fell sharply in February and reached around 50 000 per day in March.

We estimate that oil demand in the Americas fell by 140 kb/d q-o-q in 1Q21 (-1.3 mb/d y-o-y), and expect it to rise substantially in 2Q21 (+1 mb/d q-o-q) and 3Q21 (+1 mb/d). On average, demand will increase by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y in 2021, following 2020’s 3.1 mb/d decline,” reads the report.


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