BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.9
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
OPEC+ production returns based on the set monthly increments, but it is becoming increasingly clear that most producers will struggle to reach their targets, Trend reports with reference to Oxford Energy Studies Institute (OIES).
“Unplanned production outages across producers mainly in the US, Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria have more than offset OPEC+ supply hikes in August/September (-0.63 mb/d), with global supply expected to resume to growth from October onwards. As a result, global supply growth is now lowered by 0.2 mb/d in both 2021 and 2022, with non-OPEC crude accounting for the entire downward revisions. As the last phase of the OPEC+ deal progresses, only a handful can respond by uplifting production targets, which means that any deviations from set targets to the upside are difficult to reach and ‘involuntary’ compliance is set to rise,” reads the OIES report.
OPEC+ compliance remained strong at 115 percent in August with this trend expected to persist throughout as producers struggle to keep up with rising targets, the OIES analysts believe.
“OPEC+ output in September/October is expected to recover as outages are reversed but overall figure in 2022 is lowered to 1.3 mb/d below the 5.76 mb/d target. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2021 is downgraded again by 0.19 mb/d due to the impact of Hurricane Ida on US supply growth that wiped out the entire expected y/y gains in USGC for the year as a whole, and as crude production in Brazil and other non-OPEC (including non-OPEC+) continues to undershoot the forecast (-0.2 mb/d). The losses carry on in 2022 (-0.23 mb/d).”
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