BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.14
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
Global inventories fell by 1.9 million b/d in third-quarter 2021 (3Q21), marking the fifth consecutive quarter of draws; quarterly draws averaged 2.2 million b/d over those five quarters, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
EIA notes that the continuous drop in oil inventories put upward pressure on oil prices as well.
Global liquid fuels production has also risen more slowly than global demand this year, according to the Energy Information Administration.
“Production increased by 2.7 million b/d (3 percent) from January to September, whereas global consumption increased by 6.3 million b/d (7 percent) during the same period. Despite relatively low global production and rising crude oil prices, OPEC+ members reaffirmed a previously agreed on production increase of 400,000 b/d in November, as opposed to a higher production increase for the month. Following this announcement on October 4, the price of Brent crude oil settled at $81.26, after beginning the day at $79.28.
In this forecast, we now expect that global oil inventories in 4Q21 and 1Q22 will fall at a faster rate than we had previously expected, which largely reflects lower global oil supply during this period across a range of producers. We have also raised our expectations for global oil demand during winter 2021–22., In the October STEO, we have increased our forecast for Brent crude oil prices. We now expect falling global oil inventories will keep Brent prices near $80/b this winter, averaging $81/b in 4Q21 and $78/b in 1Q21, both of which are $10/b higher than forecast last month,” reads the latest EIA report.
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