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Non-OPEC production to be on decline in 2022-2023

Oil&Gas 13 January 2022 18:56 (UTC +04:00)
Non-OPEC production to be on decline in 2022-2023

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.13

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Non-OPEC production is expected to increase by 2.8 million b/d in 2022 and by an additional 1.6 million b/d in 2023, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“We estimate that in 2021, non-OPEC production increased by 0.7 million b/d compared with 2020. Most of this increase came from the three largest non-OPEC producers: the United States, Russia, and Canada. We expect non-OPEC production to increase by 2.8 million b/d in 2022 and by an additional 1.6 million b/d in 2023. The United States and Russia lead production growth among non-OPEC countries in our forecast during both 2022 and 2023. Brazil, Norway, and Canada also contribute significantly to growth in the forecast,” reads the EIA report.

After the United States, Russia is the world’s second-largest producer of liquid fuels.

“ Its liquid fuels production averaged 10.8 million b/d in 2021, 0.3 million b/d more than in 2020. We forecast Russia’s liquid fuels production will continue to grow in 2022 and 2023 but at a slower rate. From December 2020 to December 2021, Russia’s liquid fuels production grew by 0.9 million b/d. However, most of the growth in 2021 occurred during the second half of the year as OPEC+, in which Russia participates, consistently raised its production targets. This growth used up most of Russia’s available spare capacity. We forecast that annual growth in oil production in Russia will average almost 0.8 million b/d during 2022 and 0.3 million b/d in 2023,” the report says.

EIA estimates that Canada’s liquid fuels production increased by 0.3 million b/d in 2021 to reach a record high annual average of 5.6 million b/d.

“Production growth in Canada followed increased refinery demand for crude oil in the United States, the removal of production curtailments set by Alberta’s provincial government, and the restart of oil sands expansion projects deferred during the COVID-19 pandemic. In our forecast, we assume that no new upstream projects come online in Canada during 2022 or 2023. We expect oil sands output will continue to grow at smaller increments. Canada’s oil sands producers have adjusted the scale and pace of upstream development and investment. These producers have increasingly moved toward smaller incremental expansions or optimizations of existing projects rather than toward larger expansions or greenfield projects. Some growth will also come from removing the bottlenecks from pipeline capacity. We forecast that output across a number of other non-OPEC producers will decline in 2022 and 2023, notably in Indonesia and Colombia,” said EIA.

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Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

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