BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 1
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Natural gas demand in Europe will drop by 18 percent to 420 billion cubic meters by 2050, Trend reports with reference to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
“Nevertheless, natural gas will remain resilient at least up until 2030 as emission-reduction measures are expected to initially have more impact on coal and oil within the power generation and transport sectors. Over the long term, increased decarbonization efforts through energy efficiency, electrification, renewables and low-carbon hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen that will be introduced for a wide range of sectors, will create pressure for natural gas demand. The transport sector and blue hydrogen generation will present the best growth potential, partially offsetting declines in other sectors,” GECF said in a report.
The organization notes that in the context of energy transition and countries’ intentions to mitigate the negative impact on the climate, natural gas, which today provides almost one quarter of the world’s energy supply, will play a critical and unique role in meeting the growing demand for clean and affordable energy.
With its important role in the decarbonization process, natural gas has the potential to achieve progress within the environmental and sustainable development agendas, according to GECF.
In the RCS, there is no peak in natural gas demand, which grows to 5,625 bcm by 2050 – 46 percent higher than in 2020. However, compared to last year’s GGO, the forecast for 2050 has been revised downwards by around 300 bcm (a reduction of 5 percent).
“The revision has come on the back of countries’ commitments towards net-zero, which are expected to affect gas demand especially in Europe and in the US, as well as increased policy support for renewables and alternative decarbonization options, such as pervasive electrification, energy efficiency, deployment of biomethane and low-carbon hydrogen. Concerning the latter, a transition to green hydrogen will have a small impact on global gas demand. This is partially due to the deployment of blue hydrogen, a new gas growth sector, which will offset the displacement, but this effect will take varying shapes across different markets. Simultaneously, key determinants which will ensure a resilient outlook for gas will be policy efforts aimed at air quality improvements, coal and oil-to-gas switching, and the development of CCS/CCUS (including direct use of this technology at power plants and large industrial sites).”
Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn