BAKU, Azerbaijan, Apr.1. The Trans Caspian (TCP) interconnector is the modest version of the TCP and would carrying only some 10-12 bcm of gas but could be ready for operation sooner and at significantly lower cost than the full-scale TCP, US expert on Central Asia Bruce Pannier told Trend.
He pointed out that the full-scale TCP would carry some 30 bcm of gas but would take longer to construct and more money to build, though that could become “phase two” of a project that begins with the interconnector pipeline.
“Completion of either version of the TCP would give the EU another supplier of gas, Turkmenistan in this case, but Kazakhstan has also been mentioned in the past. It would certainly be a symbolic accomplishment as it would send a message to Russia the EU has yet another option for importing natural gas,” Pannier believes.
The expert noted that the EU consumes 500-600 bcm annually, of which about 340-350 bcm is imported.
“So even if the TCP exports 30 bcm, it would still be less than 10 percent of EU import needs. However, that gas would be loaded into the TANAP pipeline through Turkey that aims to have an eventual capacity of some 60 bcm, some of which would be gas from Azerbaijan. So, if TANAP reaches its maximum capacity with gas from the TCP and Azerbaijan, it would supply the EU with 16-17 percent of import needs, which is quite a bit,” Pannier explained.
Regarding that factors that hinder the project’s implementation, the US expert pointed out that one problem is construction of the full-scale TCP that carries 30 bcm but faces resistance from Russia and Iran, both of whom object to the project on the grounds it could cause environmental damage.
“Many suspect the real reason for Moscow and Tehran’s objections is that they see the TCP as a competitor project that would cut into gas sales they hope to make, or are making to the EU. That is the biggest problem. There is also the problem of capacity in pipelines from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan quite naturally wants to export its own gas and extra capacity for gas from the TCP would need to be found. That might be easy for 10-12 bcm, but I believe the capacity of the pipeline network from Azerbaijan to Turkey would need to be expanded to ship an additional 30 bcm,” he noted.
Pannier went on to add that the interconnector uses existing infrastructure and Caspian gas fields so that should not be difficult to launch.
“Construction of the section of the pipeline from Turkmenistan’s mainland across the bottom of the Caspian Sea has always been something Iran and Russia have expressed concerns about, and I do not think they will change their position on this,” the expert concluded.
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