BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 11. Disruption of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine via the Sokhranivka pipeline Ukraine can cut off up to a third of Europe’s gas imports, Trend quoted Rystad Energy analyst Zongqiang Luo as saying.
“The knock-on effect of removing a further pipeline from Europe’s gas grid and the loss of 10 mcm/d of gas flow per day will make it harder for countries to meet their storage targets and hasten Europe’s plans to move away from imports of Russian gas. As the European gas grid is well integrated, no one country is likely to suffer any immediate impact, but this will put further strain on the system and place a floor on downside price movement,” he believes.
Zongqiang Luo warns that one third of Russian gas flows into Europe could potentially be impacted, equivalent to 33 mcm/Day.
“Currently, the daily gas flow via Sokhranivka is averaged at about 23 million cubic meters (mcm) per day in May 2022 that is 20 percent lower than the flow in the previous month. Daily flows via Sudzha have significantly recovered to the same level in Dec 2021 and March 2022, averaging 70 mcm per day in May. The contracted gas transit capacity at Sudzha based on the existing transit contract of 77 mcm per day, would allow approximately 7 mcm/d volume addition once the gas flow at Sokhranivka is halted. However, based on the historical flow record, another 6 mcm/d on top of that capacity may be added. This leaves 10 mcm/d of gas flow that will still need to be re-directed via other pipeline routes. Where exactly is not clear as capacity is seemingly full,” he noted.
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