BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 20. OPEC’s attention has shifted on the demand-side as growth concerns rise with no indication that producers will alter their current deal till its expiration, Trend reports with reference to Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
The call on OPEC crude is relatively unchanged in 2022, up by 10,000 b/d, but is downgraded by nearly 0.1 mb/d in 2023.
Excluding Russia, total OPEC+ underproduction rose to 1.3 mb/d in April, with OPEC Africa (-0.77 mb/d) and non-OPEC+ (-0.47 mb/d) accounting almost for the entire gap.
“Our best-case scenario sees OPEC+ excluding Russia lifting
output only by 1.15 mb/d between May and September 2022, 0.45 mb/d
below the headline 1.6 mb/d target. Non-OPEC supply growth outside
OPEC+ undershoot expectations by 0.5 mb/d in Q1,
with US growth revised lower q/q by 0.3 mb/d, signalling a sluggish response in 2022.
Non-OPEC supply growth in 2022 is downgraded by 0.33 mb/d largely reflecting revisions in Russian and non-OPEC+ crude production and edges higher in 2023 by 0.16 mb/d on higher growth in Norway, the US and Canada,” reads the OIES report.
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