BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 13. Global oil inventories rose for the first time on a quarterly basis in two years, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration.
“Global oil consumption has outpaced the global oil supply since mid-2020, which, combined with the increased risk that global oil supply could be constrained, has put significant upward pressure on both crude oil and petroleum product prices. Because production has not kept up with demand, commercial oil inventories in the OECD have fallen outside of their five-year (2017–2021) range and are near their lowest levels since 2014. Oil consumption outpacing oil production has led to persistent withdrawals from global oil inventories. We estimate that global oil inventories declined for seven consecutive quarters starting in the third quarter of 2020 (3Q20) and continuing through 1Q22. Inventories declined at an average rate of 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) over that period. The Brent crude oil spot price increased from an average of $43 per barrel (b) in 3Q20 to an average of $114/b in 2Q22. For 2Q22, we estimate that inventories rose for the first time on a quarterly basis in two years,” reads the latest report released by the EIA.
EIA expects global oil inventories will rise by an average of 0.8 million b/d in 2022 and be mostly unchanged in 2023. Inventory builds in 2022 generally put downward pressure on crude oil prices.
“However, we expect prices to stay elevated as inventories remain below their recent five-year average for most of the forecast, which will likely keep crude oil prices volatile. The Brent price averages $104/b in 2022 and $94/b in 2023 in our forecast.”
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