BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.3. Europe may need either 9 percent or 13 percent gas demand reduction this winter, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA conducted a seasonal resilience analysis of the European market in the case of complete Russian pipeline gas supply cut-off, starting from 1 November 2022, including the risk of a potential late cold spell. The analysis shows that a demand reduction of 9 percent compared to the five-year average would be necessary to maintain storage levels above 25 percent in the case of lower LNG inflow, while a reduction of 13 percent compared to the five-year average would be necessary through the winter period to sustain storage levels above 33 percent in the case of lower LNG supply.
In this context, IEA experts believe that implementing gas saving measures will be crucial to minimize storage withdrawals and keep inventories at an adequate level until the end of the heating season.
“The European Union and its member states adopted a number of measures to enhance security of supply and market resilience ahead of the coming winter. They include a new storage regulation that sets a minimum 80 percent filling level at the opening of winter 2022/23, and up to 90 percent for the following years. The bloc is also ramping up its LNG import capacity, either through the expansion of existing onshore regasification plants or the hiring of floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). Several EU-based companies secured additional LNG supply via tenders and short-term LNG contracts. In addition to the record inflow of LNG, EU member states started to diversify their imports from non-Russian pipeline suppliers. The European Union adopted a 15 percent voluntary reduction target for its gas demand between 1 August 2022 and 31 March 2023, compared with its five-year average,” reads the report.
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