BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 4. Global gas demand is set to soar in the coming decade, necessitating a 12.5 percent surge in production between 2023 and 2030, Trend reports via Rystad Energy.
However, even under the most optimistic scenarios of limiting global warming to 1.9 or 2.5 degrees Celsius and a rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, the existing roster of gas fields worldwide is predicted to fall short of meeting this burgeoning demand. This underscores the pressing need for an accelerated growth in unconventional gas supplies.
Regions rich in natural gas, particularly the Middle East with its abundant basins like Rub al Khali, are poised to assume a pivotal role in closing this supply-demand gap. Rystad Energy estimates that the Middle East could potentially contribute up to 20 million tons per annum (tpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the year 2040.
The production of unconventional gas, including shale, has experienced a rapid surge in recent years, propelled by advancements in technology and reduced lead times. This remarkable growth has propelled the share of unconventional gas in global gas production from a modest 4 percent in 2000 to an impressive 12 percent in 2022, with an anticipated surge to 35 percent in 2023.
The influx of cost-effective gas from unconventional sources, coupled with continued supplies from major gas-exporting nations such as Russia, has curbed exploration endeavors for conventional gas. This is evident in the fact that nearly 70 percent of identified conventional gas reserves have yet to receive approval for development, highlighting the challenges and hesitance associated with exploiting these resources.
Traditionally, Russia and the Middle East have been at the forefront of conventional gas production, and this trend shows no signs of waning. Middle Eastern countries are intensifying their efforts to boost gas production as part of their evolving energy transition strategies.
Aatisha Mahajan, Vice President of Exploration at Rystad Energy, emphasized the growing significance of gas in the context of a sustainable energy future, stating, “Gas is increasingly seen as a crucial stepping stone toward a sustainable future. With reduced emissions and regional energy security objectives aligning, gas is well-positioned to play a pivotal role in the global energy transition. The Middle East is a key driver of this transition, progressively moving towards the development and expansion of gas volumes as part of their evolving energy strategies.”
As global energy dynamics continue to evolve, the Middle East's potential role as a supplier of unconventional gas could have far-reaching implications for the future of global energy markets.
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