BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 17. Large expansion is projected in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity from the end of 2025 into 2026, Tim Gould, Chief Energy Economist, International Energy Agency (IEA), said, as he was addressing the World Energy Outlook 2024, Trend reports.
“Markets remain relatively tight for the moment, but from the end of next year into 2026, we do see large expansion in LNG export capacity, and not all of that LNG finds an immediate home in our projections. That means a reduction in the average utilisation of today's LNG export facilities from around 95% today to something much more like 80% by 2030. That's something of a buffer on the supply side. And it's not just oil and gas,” he said.
Gould went on to add that there is already a large overhang of manufacturing capacity for solar PV modules.
“Over the past five years, deployment of solar PV has risen by a factor of four, but manufacturing capacity has risen by a factor of six. And we have a similar picture for batteries. In both cases, we have this underutilised manufacturing capacity, and that is maintained all the way through to the end of the decade. So, we're entering a different energy market context, where we have much more intense competition for consumers and the potential for downward pressure on prices,” said the chief energy economist.
Further, touching upon the possible impact of the ongoing developments in the Middle East to the energy markets, Gould pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is a major maritime choke point for energy trade in the Middle East.
“Any disruption in the Middle East that affected those main export routes for oil and gas would also limit the effectiveness of that safety net, because most of that spare capacity for oil is also in the Middle East. The major reason for LNG supply increasing is because of Qatar, which also uses the Strait of Hormuz to get to international markets,” he added.
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