BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan, December 14. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts Kyrgyzstan's GDP to rise by 4.6 percent in 2023, Trend reports.
Analysts at the bank predict a steady slowing of the country's GDP growth to 4.5 percent in 2024, 3.5 percent in 2025, and 3.4 percent in 2026.
The production of primary metals is expected to continue to constrain the growth dynamics of the industrial sector in the fourth quarter of 2023.
On the other hand, tax and budget incentives are likely to raise domestic consumer demand even further. The economy will continue to benefit from increased investment and export growth.
"In the base scenario, we project a 4.5-percent GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan for 2024, attributed to the implementation of a state investment program financed by international development institutions," the bank representatives believe.
It was pointed out that in the latter half of 2024, a slowdown in both wholesale and retail trade is anticipated. The projected low water levels will also adversely impact the growth dynamics in agriculture and the energy sector. The industrial sector will pick up momentum through increased extraction of metallic ores and the growth in primary metal production. Consequently, this will contribute to the expansion of goods exports.
According to the EDB, Kyrgyzstan's GDP will have increased by 4.5 percent year on year by the conclusion of the first ten months of 2023. The receding effects of the migration shock experienced in autumn 2022 supported the return to a balanced level of economic growth. Internal demand also played a key role in boosting the economy this year, aided by higher real salaries and a rise in the number of new consumer loans.
While citing the bank's preliminary estimates, an increased (roughly fivefold) flood of tourists provided significant support to the trade and transportation sectors, as well as hotels and restaurants. The execution of state investment projects in the energy, water supply, and education sectors boosted investment demand. Private investment in the mining sector has increased.