Weekly economic review (21.09- 26.09.2009)

The Cabinet of Minister of Azerbaijan presided by Premier Artur RAsizade discussed forecasted indicators of the public and consolidated budgets and economic and social development concept for 2010 and three subsequent years

Addressing the gathering Finance Minister Samir Sharifov said that coming out from conservative position on the backdrop of survival of the global economy from recession, rise of expenditure and income of the public and consolidated budgets for 2010 is forecasted lower than the growth rate of the budgets for 2008-2009.

The 2010 public budget income is forecasted at 10.015 billion, or 31.5 percent of the GDP. In accordance with forecasts, the public budget expenditure will comprise 11.264 billion manat, or 35.4 percent of the GDP. In 2010 the contemporary expenses of the public budget expenditure will comprise 6.792.2 million manat (60.3 of total budget expense), capital expenses - 4.386.3 million manat (38.9 percent), expenses linked with repayment of public debt - 85.5 million manat (0.8 percent). The special weight of social expenses in the budget will comprise 34.4 percent (3.878 million manat), exceeding the last year's figure by 1.8 percent.

In 2010, 4.387.3 million manat, or 39 percent of the budget expenditures, was assigned for financing programs and actions of state significance.

Sharifov said in accordance with definite strategic economic policy of the country on functional directions, in 2010 special weight of expenses for social protection and social provision in the public budget expenses will increase by 1.4 percent as compared to 2009 to 10.6 percent, special weight of education expenses will increase by 0.3 percent to 11.3 percent, special weight of health expenses will increase by 0.2 percent to 4.3 percent, special weight of expenses for culture, arts and media will increase by 0.1 percent to 1.5 percent, special weight of expenses for agriculture, forestry and fishery will increase by 0.1 percent to 3.4 percent and special weight of expenses for housing and public utilities will increase by 0.1 percent to 1.8 percent.

The 2010 consolidated budget income is forecasted at 11.885 billion manat and expenses 12.466 billion manat.

Minister for Economic Development Shahin Mustafayev said in his remarks that the concept and forecasts were developed with the consideration of some factors, including results of 2008 and socio-economic indices of last period, proposals of relevant state agencies and big enterprises, as well as peculiarities capable of influencing on further development of national economy, including probability for increase of inflation tendencies, sharp drop or rise in oil prices.

Forecasts of international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Asian Development Bank (ADB), and all factors affecting them were analyzed while forecasting the major macroeconomic indices for 2010-2013.

Forecasts of these organizations and other international organizations regarding the future of Azerbaijani economy are positive. The IMF forecasts the growth pace of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the level of 12.5 percent in Azerbaijan, the World 7.8 percent, the EBRD 6 percent and the Asian Development Bank 6.7 percent.

With regard to forecast the major macroeconomic indices, oil price in the 2010 public budget is forecasted at $45 per barrel. At the same time, different versions of forecasts were designed following the adoption of world oil prices in the amount of $50 to $70 per barrel.

Inflation ratio in the country is forecasted at three percent in 2010.

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