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Present and future of printing media

Analysis Materials 17 August 2010 11:05 (UTC +04:00)

The 135th jubilee of the national press was remembered by a range of actions and public speeches, which also concentrated on financial support to the national journalism. On the eve of jubilee Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a range of decrees, which also included measures of social protection of media employees and rendering financial assistance to media.

It will be interesting to have a look at a general scene of foreign printing media, the difficulties they face, state of business at the market of printing publications amid developing online news. Let's appeal to a, OECD Science, Industry and Technologies Directorate's report "Evolution of News Market and Internet", issued this June.

The economic crisis and the strong fall in offline and online advertisement spending have created additional problems for newspapers leading to a loss of circulation, the closure of newspapers and shedding of newsroom staff. Structural factors are compounded by cyclical factors.

Some papers are in bankruptcy (including some large newspaper companies such as The Tribune Company), and others have lost three-quarters of their stock market value. The industry remains profitable, but operating margins are dropping fast.

The growth of the global newspaper market slowed progressively from 2004 (3.6% growth over the previous year) down to only about zero growth in 2007 and negative growth since 2008 (-5%). In 2009 the global newspaper publishing market significantly shrank by about 10%.

The growth slowdown started and is most heavily pronounced in North America (since 2006 negative growth -14% in 2008, -18% in 2009). The Asia Pacific region has resisted the most with growth holding up until 2008 and an estimated decline of -6% in 2009. Turkey, Greece, Austria, Mexico and Australia were experiencing double-digit growth between 2004 and 2009. In 2009 however, the newspaper markets of all OECD countries were declining

In Japan 526 paid daily papers are circulated on an average day per 1 000 population, more than Norway with 458 issues, Finland with 400 issues, Sweden with 362 issues and Switzerland with 292 issues. Interestingly these OECD countries also have a very high broadband penetration. In the United States this is true for only 160 per 1 000 population, and circulation per population is also much lower in Canada (129 per 1 000 pop.), France (122), Australia (116), Spain and Italy (both 90).

In 2008, roughly 4000 newspaper titles existed in the OECD. For a majority of OECD countries, the paid-for dailies number of titles decreased or held roughly steady among OECD countries between 2000 and 2008. Yet other OECD countries have witnessed a growth in the number of their paid-for-dailies' numbers: most noticeably Korea (125%, not in graph as per the Note), Turkey (76%), and Ireland (50%).

Growth in the BIICS countries by about 35% from 2000 to 2008 very much contributed to this growth, most notably India with a 45% increase in circulation between 2000 and 2008, South Africa (34%) and China (an estimated 29%). Gains are not only occurring there but also in other countries and continents, including Africa and South America.

Specialized versus general: A stylized trend is that newspapers containing news of general information show higher circulation losses than local ones and also higher circulation losses than those with specialised content such as business news, i.e. Wall Street Journal). The specialized press performs better than general newspapers.

The amount of printing press audience is becoming older and declining. Some 20 of 32 countries feel this process and it is specially observed in Australia, Canada, U.S., and Korea. The largest audience is in Japan, Island, and Portugal. Decline in newspaper reading was mostly observed in Greece, Turkey and UK.   

In the United States, the number of daily newspaper readers is in steady decline across all demographic groups (Meyer, 2004, Pew Surveys). According to the United States Census, time spent reading physical newspapers is in steady decline in the United States (from 202 hours per person per year in 2000 to a projected 165 hours in 2009).

In terms of declines precipitated by the economic crisis and related employment losses, the United States is at the centre of attention. US newspaper publisher revenues based on circulation and advertising have experienced a steep drop in 2009 and the forecasts for the coming years are also rather pessimistic (14.6% decrease in 2008 and an 18% drop in 2009 according to data from PwC, 2009a). UK newspapers faced a strong decline, in particular regional dailies with a large number of local papers closing - which has lasted for a number of years but is now being accelerated. All in all, paid newspaper unit circulation declined during the past five years and paid circulation volume will fall by about by 2.2% in 2009. In particular the projected falls in print advertising revenues for 2009 are a substantial - 26% - the steepest in Europe.

In Germany advertising fell by 4.25% in 2008, and in the first semester of 2009 this fall was particularly strong with local and regional papers that faced -14% declines. Spain is experiencing a strong fall in circulation but is mostly suffering from a strong decline in advertising (-13% in 2008 and -33% in the first semester of 2009 alone) and other revenues. Between June 2008 and April 2009 about 2 400 Spanish journalists lost their jobs according to the Associations de journalistes espagnols (Fape).

The global newspaper publishing market derives about 57% of its revenues from advertising (print and online) and about 43% from sales of actual newspapers (circulation) (PwC, 2009a). As we will see later this breakdown varies greatly between OECD countries. Online advertising still only accounts for roughly 4% of total revenues in 2009 (around 6% of total advertising revenues). However, it grew very rapidly before the onset of the economic crisis, in particular as compared to the slowly growing print advertising which also started to decline as of 2007. As will be explained later, the growth in digital advertising dropped to just below zero in 2009. On the global level circulation has remained fairly steady over the last years (slow growth) with only a marginal decline in 2009; showing that it is less volatile than the more cyclical advertising revenues.

Newspapers generate revenue by selling newspaper copies to readers on the one hand, and advertisement space to advertisers on the other, cross-subsidising the production of news with the sale of ads or other commercial activities present in media conglomerates.

The global newspaper publishing market derives about 57% of its revenues from advertising (print and online) and about 43% from sales of actual newspapers. On the global level circulation has remained fairly steady over the last years (slow growth) with only a marginal decline in 2009; showing that it is less volatile than the more cyclical advertising revenues.

The shift from printed to online advertising expenditures is likely to be durable. In 2008, the Internet accounted already for close to 20% of total advertising expenditures in countries such as the United Kingdom, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and around 10-15% in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Poland and the United States. Between 2004 and 2008 in countries with an important share of the Internet in total advertising, usually its rise comes at the expense of print newspapers, magazines.

According to forecasts, global print advertising in newspapers will decline during the next years and will average to USD 24.3 billion in 2013 (from USD 36.7 billion in 2008). Online advertising spending for newspaper websites is scheduled to grow to USD 3.7 billion in 2013 (from a low of USD 3.2 billion in 2008). Advertising and classifieds are an important revenue source for newspapers in OECD countries. In many countries this makes newspapers the second largest advertising medium after television or even the first.

Sales revenues are mostly generated from sales at the stand or via subscriptions (home delivery or mail delivery). In countries such as Japan, Korea, Iceland about 9 out of 10 newspapers are home delivered. In the United States these sales are also relatively high with 7 out of 10, similar to Nordic EU countries (such as Sweden). Sales through home delivery are low in countries such as in France (2 out of 10 newspapers). And in all OECD countries sales at the newsstand are in decline.

Some observers however deplore that the "golden age" of newspapers and journalism, when quality and reliability were arguably higher, is now sadly gone. Arguably, the growing financial pressures and the emergence of "free news" put this golden age increasingly at stake. According to this view, the "economic foundations of modern journalism are crumbling" and there are few alternative models in sight which would guarantee satisfactory news coverage. According to some analysts, there is no longer a functioning business model for journalism. Its accuracy, the quality, and the diversity of news are at risk, and the economic downturn has intensified this trend.

Along with state subsidies many countries offer indirect subsidies in the form post tariffs, tax premiums, preferences for printing definite information piece. Eight countries apply zero-VAT to newspaper products, while other use lax tax mode.

At the same, it has never been so easy, swift and cheap to access news as now following the appearance Internet. Permanent and frequently free access to news, every minute updating, video accompany in many cases, personalization, news distribution at customer's order to different technological platforms (smartphones, electronic books) - it all makes the Internet quite attractive for readers. Nevertheless, not only means and forms of distributing news change. Readers can themselves create, edit and distribute news either as a "citizen journalist", or by using own blogs and placing private ideas and comments on various events, or just by sending own articles via e-mail.

In many OECD countries, TV and newspapers are still the most important sources of news but this is shifting with newspapers losing ground more quickly to the Internet than TV. In countries such as Korea the Internet has already overtaken other forms of news.

"Reading news on line" is an increasingly important Internet activity. In some OECD countries, more than half of the population read newspapers on line but at the minimum 20% of the population read newspapers on line. The willingness to pay for online news is low but increasing.

In countries with advanced mobile broadband solutions such as Korea, offline newspaper reading is already less popular today (51.5% of the population) than online newspaper reading (77.3%) according to surveys. In the United States, the Internet has become a preferred source (40% of all Americans went on line in 2008 to gather news) for news, just before reading print newspapers (35%) but behind television (70%)

An important conclusion the majority of experts came is that now reading news in Internet complements to other forms, rather replacing them, the model of Korea is exclusion rather a rule. They believe decline in business activity of traditional printing media as an important tool of democratic society is of temporary character and the urgent task is to create new business models to finance production of accurate and independent.

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