Weekly economic review
Demand for energy will increase each year and by 2030 the rise will be 60% compared to 2000, an expert at ExxonMobil, Scott Nauman, said in Astana, Kazakhstan.
"With the increase in population (8bln of people in 2030) and rise of world GDP (2.8% per year increase by 2030) the demand in energy will increase by 60% by 2030, compared to 2000, and reach 15.5bln of oil per year," Nauman said.
The increase will occur mainly in countries that are not members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development uniting Australia, Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Hungary, Germany, Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, Canada, Korea, Luxemburg, and Turkey, and so on.
According to the expert, the increasing demands for energy in the world will still be met by mainly oil, gas, and coal. Some 80% of energy consumed is produced from fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal). The index will not profoundly change by 2030.
"I mean oil, gas and coal will keep their dominating position even in 25 years," the representative of ExxonMobil stressed.
"The demand for oil and other types of liquid fuel is expected to rise by 1.4% per year, for natural gas by 1.7%, for coal by 1.6%," Nauman said. He noted that the use of wind and sun energy that is intensively discussed at present will allegedly increase by on average 10.5% a year. However, this type of energy will be able to suffice only 1% of the world energy consumption by 2030.
by 2030 gas supplies to the world markets will increase mainly from Russia and the Caspian region.
"By 2030 the demand for gas for production of electricity and other requirements will increase in all regions of the world," Naumann stressed. By 2030 a considerable drop in production is expected in West European countries. "To cover the increasing demand, import deliveries via the pipelines will be increased mainly from the Caspian region and Russia," he noted
The forecasts makes hopeful for increase of Azerbaijan's role in the world market in future. In 2008 oil production in Azerbaijan is forecasted in the volume of 1.08mln barrels a day as compared to 0.91mln in 2007.
The estimated volume of oil reserves in Azerbaijan constituted 7bln barrels of oil in the first quarter of 2007, or the same fixed in 2003, according to the US Energy Information Administration, an independent agency of the US Energy Ministry.
From 1997 to 2002 (inclusively) the estimated reserves of Azerbaijan were estimated to be 1.178bln barrels for each year's first quarter.
Oil production is expected to increase in Azerbaijan to 1.2mln in 2010.