Rufiz Hafizoglu, Trend Middle East Desk Head
No matter how unexpected it seems, the Syrian Government has accepted the Arab League's plan assuming cessation of bloody collisions that have been lasting for eight months in the country.
Under the terms of the agreement between the Syrian Government and the Arab League, bloody collisions should stop shortly; those arrested during mass disorders should be released; and the Army must leave towns. Conditions should also be formed to allow the League investigating the happened.
In fact, given that the NATO does not interfere with the Syrian events and that there is the Iranian factor and the interests of Arab states and Turkey in the country, official Damascus is unlikely to meet fully the League's demands and so is opposition's calming down afterwards.
Yet this August Syrian Government promised to Turkey it will stop fights within 15 days; however, the Army launched a harsher attack on the opposition later on.
On the other hand, Syrian Government considers opposition's demands unsubstantiated and claims the mass disorders are financed from outside.
"We know that Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia unofficially render financial assistance to terrorists in Syria," Feisal Miktad, the Spokesman for Syrian Foreign Minister, stated in an interview. The Spokesman also noted that the Libyan scenario will not be repeated in Syria.
Though many analysts think the agreement between Damascus and the Arab League will trigger stoppage of violence, the real problem for Syria, indeed, will occur exactly after that.
Thirteen people were killed in clashes in Syrian town Hums the next morning after Syria and the Arab League concluded the agreement. The opposition is unlikely to give up its demands now when, despite of the agreement, blood was shed again.
On the other hand, restoration of stability in Damascus through release of those imprisoned is strongly doubtful because release of the arrested oppositionists would be considered helplessness of the state and hence will cause new, more serious protest actions.
Though the agreement between Damascus and the Arab League, considered Syria's last chance, is designed to restore stability in the country, the existing situation in Syria makes us think this plan will not come true.