Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov. 8
By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:
It seems that a big cleanup of the whole region from Iranian influence has begun. It was clearly declared last week by Lebanese PM Saad al-Hariri during his sudden resignation from the post.
However, his decision has not been a surprise but commencement of a well-considered campaign to make Iran lose its power in the region.
Saad al-Hariri blamed Iran on its growing influence in the region and accused it of a “deep hatred for the Arab nation”.
He slammed Iran and its closest ally – the Lebanese Hezbollah – for meddling in Arab affairs: “When there are attempts to strike Lebanon’s relations with Arab brothers, falsifying the intentions of the Lebanese towards the Arab countries, falsifying the intentions of our Arab brothers towards us, falsifying the Arab identity of Lebanon and our constant stand with Arab consensus and Arab interest, this is an attempt at piracy,” Hariri earlier said at a media conference in Beirut.
His several references to the “Arab identity” is an obvious call for the Arab world (not only Lebanon) to form a unified stand against Iranian influence that has spread far from its borders. It doesn’t matter whether Hariri has been a mouthpiece of Saudis or expressed his own thoughts. It matters that the idea has been voiced and heard, and can mark a turning point in the region.
In an interview with FRANCE 24, Lebanese Education Minister Marwan Hamade also repeated that the government crisis in Lebanon was the “crisis of national identity: Are we with the Arab camp? Are we being driven into the Iranian orbit?”
Iran has no close friend among the Arab states but two mechanisms implanted into the Arab communities in several Arab states were bearing fruit within the past several years – exploitation of a sectarian factor and “defend the oppressive” idea.
Thus it enabled Iran to establish islands of allegiance in the Arabic ocean.
Nevertheless, it is necessary to realize that Iran is acting in its own interest, precisely what the others are doing.
One day Saudi Arabia found itself surrounded by a range conflicts taking place dangerously close to the Kingdom. The alarm bell sounded that not only the Kingdom’s well-being but perhaps its existence is under threat.
The Crown Prince Muhammad and his highly intelligent advisers know for certain that old scheme to direct the state, apart from withstanding Iran’s influence, no longer works effectively.
Just try to manage an oriental kingdom where there are hundreds of princes laying claims to inviolability of their status by birthright and having exorbitant demands and ambitions.
So time has probably come to sweep the Saudi Royal household, and establish a new top-down power structure to cope with complicated regional issues, for instance, to remove artificially generated Sunni-Shi’a rift on the basis of “moderate Islam” in order to unite the Arab world again.
Last week the Saudi-led coalition stated it would temporarily close all land, sea and air access to Yemen to stop Iranian military aid to Shiite Houthi rebels. The decision was taken after the ballistic missiles fired by Houthis on Saudi Arabia were identified as Iranian made. The statement also noted that Saudi Arabia reserves the right to respond to Iran, which is guaranteed by international law, at the right time and form.
Pentagon has supported the Saudi response.
The latest events around Yemen and Lebanon make an outside observer come to a distressing conclusion that fight for life-or-death in the world’s most explosive region will most likely go on.
As to oil prices, they will stay relatively stable at the first stage of “Vision for 2030” program aiming to diminish the Kingdom’s dependence on oil. They may even rise a bit as was forecasted by Crown Prince Muhammad for 2018.
Saudi Aramco IPO will remain highly attractive as the prime cost of oil produced in the Kingdom is the lowest in the world in addition to lack of taxes and excellent extraction infrastructure. Also, oil will remain in demand in many fields of human life even if the internal combustion engine becomes a thing of the past.
The prices go down when the oil, during the transformation period, will turn from means of survival and personal enrichment to stepping stone for a new Saudi reality. But it will not occur soon.