Baku, Azerbaijan, March 23
By Matanat Nasibova – Trend:
Assumptions regarding the transit of Iranian gas to Georgia through Armenia have no basis for practical implementation, Farhad Ibrahimov, the expert of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian political analyst, told Trend.
He was commenting on this topic frequently discussed in the Armenian media.
He said that for the implementation of the pipeline construction project from Iran to Georgia through Armenia, great financial resources are required, and they are unlikely to be covered by the Iranian side.
“I doubt that Iran will pay for this, because the country itself is actively seeking investments due to the sanctions, while Armenia and Georgia simply don’t have such financial resource,” he noted. “Obviously, Nikol Pashinyan hopes to involve Georgia in his projects and expects that it will reduce gas imports from Azerbaijan. However, Georgia gets gas from Azerbaijan on quite favorable terms and Tbilisi is unlikely to look for alternative sources. Therefore, it is safe to say that all initiatives on gas supplies from Iran to Georgia through Armenia will remain only in words.”
The political analyst further noted that Armenia is going through a period of uncertainty, which is related to the chaotic foreign policy pursued by Pashinyan.
“On the one hand, he is trying to build relations with Russia in such a way as to show his electorate how serious he is and that the things won’t be as they were before, on the other hand, he is counting on the support of Western countries in order to achieve his goals,” Ibrahimov said. “But he doesn’t succeed in this, either, since there is nothing besides statements and words. Now, he turns to Iran for help hoping to get gas at a low price from the country. However, Iranians don’t intend to sell their gas at a low price, especially in the current economic conditions.”
“Moreover, before discussing economic issues, it is necessary to consider the political ones,” Ibrahimov added. “Throughout the whole year, Tehran has been closely following the course of events in Armenia, in particular, the speeches and statements by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. It is no secret that the Armenian prime minister surrounded himself with the people of pro-Western orientation, therefore, in their understanding, Pashinyan is a supporter of the West, and therefore, as a political figure, he isn’t reliable. There are no pro-Iranian forces in Armenia, therefore, at the earliest opportunity all the agreements between Yerevan and Tehran will be terminated.”
In Ibrahimov’s opinion, this fact doesn’t suit the Iranian side at all, which is interested in stability in general, including stability in political relations.