Conflict in Syria likely to aggravate further, analyst says

Conflict in Syria likely to aggravate further, analyst says

Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct. 16

By Elena Kosolapova - Trend:

It is unlikely that the conflict in Syria will be resolved in the near future, on the contrary, it will probably aggravate, said Joe Barnes, expert of the Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy in Houston, Texas and former diplomat with the US State Department.

"I am not holding my breath for any short-term solution [for Syria crisis]. I suspect we have a lot of fighting and more chaos to come," Barnes told Trend.

The expert noted that clearly some sort of compromise that sees [Syrian president] Assad depart and a power-sharing arrangement between elements of the current Assad regime and the various opposing groups is the only peaceful solution at this point.

"But the problem is how to achieve such a compromise, given the bitterness of the struggle and the fractured nature of the opposition," Barnes said.

Speaking on Russia's intervention in Syria, the expert said that its length will depend much upon its success in propping up the Assad government. Meanwhile Barnes believes Russia is unlikely to deploy forces sufficient to give Assad outright victory.

On September 30, Russia began air strikes on IS in Syria following Syrian President Bashar Assad's request for military assistance.

"It is possible that Putin will simply "declare victory" and withdraw after a few tactical successes," Barnes said.

However the expert noted that at this point, a Russian exit strategy is unclear. Moreover he stressed that interventions are tricky things: once embarked upon, they are hard to end.

"See the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan, now 14 years old and counting," Barnes said.

The expert believes that Russia and Western coalition leaded by the US will probably be able to coordinate their military activities in Syria to the extent that they can avoid any possible incidents involving coalition and Russian aircraft. But, he said, it is unlikely anything much more since the US and Russian objectives in Syria may overlap but they also conflict.

"While Moscow and Washington are united in their opposition to ISIS, Putin sees the maintenance of the Assad government as a solution to the Syrian crisis; Washington sees Assad as part of the problem," he noted.

Barnes also noted that a key player in the Syrian civil war is Iran and this is unlikely to change. Iran has long been deeply involved in supporting the Assad government and already provides financing, arms and advisors, he said.

"This was made clear by the recent death of Iranian General Hossein Hamedani outside Aleppo," he said.

Brigadier General of Iran's elite Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Hossein Hamedani was killed by ISIS militants on Oct. 8. He was advising the Syrian army in its fight against extremists at the request of Syrian authorities. Many media outlets had said that a commander of such high rank could not be alone in Syria and he apparently managed numerous Iranian troops.

Barnes also said that it can be expected that Iran and Russia will coordinate their activities in Syria.

Syria has been suffering an armed conflict on its soil since March 2011, which, according to the UN, has so far killed over 250,000 people and displaced nearly half of the population. Militants from various armed groups are confronting Syrian government troops. The militants of the extremist groups known as "Islamic State" and Jabhat al-Nusra are the most active ones.

Edited by T.T.

Follow the author on Twitter: @E_Kosolapova

Iran's Saipa Group declares its manufacturing data
Iran's Saipa Group declares its manufacturing data
Exports from Iran's Isfahan Province decreases
Exports from Iran's Isfahan Province decreases
Turkmen company exports batch of formwork sheets to Turkey
Turkmen company exports batch of formwork sheets to Turkey
Loading Bars
Israeli scientists discover way to block spread of brain cancer
Weekly review of Azerbaijan's oil and gas sector
5 IS militants killed in airstrike in Iraq
South Korean PM arrives in Tehran
Kyrgyzstan's referendum on new Constitution takes place, turnout was 36.75%
Turkey to emerge from auto chip crisis through local production
Trend, Kabar news agencies talk joint projects, agree to expand co-op
Iran's Saipa Group declares its manufacturing data
Uzbekistan to commission its first solar power plant in September
Exports from Iran's Isfahan Province decreases
Iran - among major countries in terms of diversity in nuclear industry
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price still falling
Cargo transportation via Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway in Q1 2021 increases
Iran's Energy Exchange announces products to be on sale on April 12
Pakistan extends full support for reconstruction of Azerbaijani liberated lands - expert
Northeastern Iranian Prov exports $3b non-oil products
Kazakhstan reveals plans on rising petrochemicals production
Int'l community should be involved in restoration of Azerbaijani liberated lands - expert
Azerbaijani FM takes part in round table organized by ADA University (PHOTO)
Europe needs a more ambitious COVID recovery plan, says France's Beaune
Azerbaijan publishes latest data on vaccinated citizens
Local elections and referendum in Kyrgyzstan: Voting ends
NCDC Head: Georgia's epidemiological situation deteriorates
Turkey successfully tests hybrid rocket engine for moon mission
Azerbaijan confirms 2,414 more COVID-19 cases, 1,695 recoveries
Africa's COVID-19 cases pass 4.34 mln: Africa CDC
Those who ordered missile strikes on Ganja are responsible for war crimes - top official
Glad to see that Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is over - Hungarian official
Khazar Consortium in Turkmenistan opens tender for plumbing materials purchase
Azerbaijan showed great heroism during Karabakh war - Turkish Presidential Administration rep (Exclusive) (VIDEO)
Iran - one of radioactive drugs exporters
Turkey names 2M2021 volume of cargo shipment via local ports from Ukraine
Visit of Turkic Council’s delegation to Azerbaijan’s Ganja city starts (PHOTO)
Goal of Turkic Council’s delegation's visit to Aghdam was to see Armenian savagery - Assistant to president
Azerbaijan's Aghdam - clear example of urbicide, says top official (PHOTO)
UAE selects first Arab woman for astronaut training
Azerbaijan moving to new stage of its development – Uzbek Information and Mass Communications Agency rep
Turkmenistan Railways opens tender for purchase of material, technical resources
Cargo movements in Iran’s Bushehr port grow
Kazakhstan’s Vagonservice company opens tender to buy oil filters
Situation in Azerbaijan’s Aghdam district - unprecedented barbarism - Turkish Presidential Administration rep (VIDEO)
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for April 11
Indonesia's 6.1-magnitude quake leaves 8 deaths
Delegation of Turkic Council reviews building of Aghdam Drama Theater destroyed by Armenians (PHOTO)
Azerbaijani Finance Ministry to auction mid-term government bonds
Russia reports over 8,700 daily COVID-19 cases
Turkmen company exports batch of formwork sheets to Turkey
Delegation of Turkic Council visits Azerbaijan’s Aghdam Juma Mosque (PHOTO/VIDEO)
Delegation of Turkic Council visits Imarat cemetery destroyed by Armenians (PHOTO/VIDEO)
President Ilham Aliyev plays very important consolidating role in Turkic Council - SecGen (EXCLUSIVE)
Buy/sell operations at Iran Mercantile Exchange disclosed
Georgia reports 707 coronavirus cases, 592 recoveries, 8 deaths
Uzbekistan, Turkey strengthen trade, economic co-op
Visit of Turkic Council's delegation to liberated Aghdam starts (PHOTO)
Weekly review of Azerbaijani precious metals market
8 rescued, 21 trapped in coal mine accident in Xinjiang
Iran discloses details of exports from industrial parks of Semnan Province
Accident reported at Iran's nuclear facility
Copper ores and concentrates rank first in list of Georgian export
Azerbaijani MoD shows footage from Fuzuli's Ashaghi Rafadinli village (VIDEO)
President of Kyrgyzstan casts vote in local council elections, referendum
India records over 150,000 daily COVID-19 cases, tally at 13,358,805
Saudi-led coalition intercepts Houthi drone
Turkmenistan signs decree on rice production
Number of enterprises put into operation in Iran's Gilan Province revealed
Azerbaijani Gadabay's Executive Office to engage landscaping services via tender
Turkish Airlines to put its 737 Max jets back in the air next week
Kazakh COVID-19 vaccine to be bottled in Turkey
Submarine cable to connect electrical networks of Georgia, Europe to be additional direct channel for telecommunication traffic
IMF, World Bank urged to contain pandemic with fair, efficient distribution of vaccines
South Korean battery makers agree last-minute deal in boost to Biden's EV policy
Egypt, Sudan reject Ethiopian proposal for data sharing on Renaissance dam
Bezos, Musk top Forbes' record-setting billionaire list
Turkey registers more than 52 600 new coronavirus cases
China-Brunei trade grows by over 70 pct in 2020
Argentina's economy minister heads to Europe to woo finance officials over debts
US boosts imports of Turkish-made clothes
Turkey sends off 2nd boron export train to China
First kidney transplant performed in Turkmenistan
Bahar Azadi gold coin price continues to fall in Iran
Iran unveils data of gasoline and petrochemicals exports
New transmission line to provide opportunities for both Georgia’s and EU energy network - expert
Weekly review of key events in Azerbaijan's transport sector
China fines Alibaba record $2.75 billion for anti-monopoly violations
Italy reports 344 coronavirus deaths on Saturday, 17,567 new cases
Azercell’s “Kabinetim” mobile app exceeded 1 million downloads
Pakistani FM to visit Tehran
Funeral for UK's Prince Philip to be held on April 17
Pinterest becomes latest platform to appoint Turkey representative
Italy's economy seen growing 4.1% this year
Volume of cargo loaded, unloaded in Iran’s Bandar Lengeh port announced
Turkmenistan’s growth of trade turnover in 1Q2021 announced
Turkish electrical goods' 1Q2021 export to Uzbekistan spikes
Azerbaijani president's assistant talks Turkic Council media co-op's systematization
Hungary considers Turkic Council member states important partners
Iran's Energy Exchange announces products to be on sale on April 11
Uzbekistan ready to actively partake in restoring Azerbaijan's liberated territories
Azerbaijan confirms 2,192 more COVID-19 cases, 1,554 recoveries
Turkey did its best in media coverage of Azerbaijan's Patriotic war - presidential administration
Azerbaijani president's assistant meets with Turkic Council's secretary-general
All news