British exports to EU could fall 14% in no-deal scenario: UN study
British exports to the European Union could fall by as much as 14% if the two sides are unable to strike a free trade deal and could be 9% lower even if an agreement is reached, a United Nations study found, Trend reports citing Reuters.
The imposition of tariffs under a no-deal scenario would crimp trade, with the effect amplified by so-called non-tariff measures (NTMs) such as quotas, licensing and regulatory measures protecting health, safety and the environment.
NTMs would double the negative impact of tariffs and could lead to an overall $32 billion hit to British exports, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) study released on Tuesday.
The agriculture, food and beverages, and wood and paper sectors seem particularly exposed, it found, with a weaker impact on electrical and machinery, metal products, chemicals, and textiles and apparel.
NTMs affect more than 80% of trade in developed counties and more than 90% in the European Union, it noted.