The Nobel Prize in economics will be awarded on Monday, Wall Street Journal reported.
University of Chicago economist Eugene Fama is the frontrunner for Labrokes, the British betting firm, fetching two-to-one odds to win the prize (which isnїt technically a Nobel but їThe Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobelї). Mr. Fama first proposed the efficient-market hypothesis in the 1960s, which says that market-set asset prices ї be they for stocks, bonds or mortgage-backed securities ї accurately reflect all information available to investors. While he seems certain to eventually win the Nobel for his insights into how markets convey information, given the way the credit crisis has been batting prices around lately, perhaps this wonїt be Mr. Famaїs year.
Running second on Ladbrokes, with four-to-one odds, is Dartmouth economist Kenneth French, Mr. Famaїs frequent collaborator. Ladbrokes gives three economists six-to-one odds. Princetonїs Christopher Sims is known for developing statistical methods that allow economists to tease out the lines of cause and effect in complex relationships. Chicagoїs Lars Hansen has studied the relationship between asset-price behavior and the macroeconomic environment (which seems timely). New York Universityїs Thomas Sargent is a pioneer of the theory of їrational expectations,ї which lays out how expectations of the future influence economic decisions.
In the top spot of a long-running Harvard prediction pool is Harvardїs own Robert Barro, a wide-ranging macroeconomist. Mr. Hansen, Mr, Fama, Mr. Sargent and Harvardїs Martin Feldstein and Oliver Hart are in a five-way tie for second.
Other top picks in the pool are MITїs Peter Diamond, Mr. Sims, Chicagoїs Richard Thaler and the UC San Diegoїs Halbert White. їNo correct guessї ї a perennial favorite that pays only if nobody in the pool correctly guesses the Nobel winner ї is the sixth leading contract.