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US surrendering its influence in Middle East to Iran

Nuclear Program Materials 18 July 2015 22:00 (UTC +04:00)
The agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and the expected lift of sanctions imposed on the country won’t only lead to development in the Islamic Republic, but also cause redistribution of powers in the region.
US surrendering its influence in Middle East to Iran

Baku, Azerbaijan, July 18

By Rufiz Hafizoglu - Trend:

The agreement on Iran's nuclear program and the expected lift of sanctions imposed on the country won't only lead to development in the Islamic Republic, but also cause redistribution of powers in the region.

Naturally, if the sanctions imposed on Iran are lifted, the country will aspire to revive its historical sphere of influence in the region.

Such steps by Tehran will inevitably shrink the sphere of influence of Turkey and a number of Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain.

Moreover, it is not ruled out that the Shiite Houthi Ansarullah movement in Yemen will become more active following the lift of sanctions imposed on Iran.

Saudi Arabia will also be affected if Iran gets out of the international political and economic isolation, while such countries as Iraq has long been under Iran's influence.

As for Syria, the authorities out this country couldn't have preserved their existence without the support of Iran, as well as the Lebanese Hezbollah which participates in the military operations against the Free Syrian Army and the militants of the "Islamic State".

Iran is an Islamic republic and the country's laws are based on the Shia Islam. But a question arises: is the signing of a deal with the US, the "Great Satan" as it is called in Iran, corresponds to Islam and Sharia?

Before that Iran has always criticized Saudi Arabia and a number of other Arab Sunni countries for being close allies of the "Great Satan". But now, Iranian authorities say that the need for signing a nuclear deal is related only with the interests and welfare of the people which is more important than ideology.

Following the September 11, 2001 events, a certain rapprochement was observed between Iran and the US. It became the beginning of the period when the Sunni powers of the region started to lose their absolute dominance in the Middle East.

During the period when some Arab countries were undergoing "jihad chaos", Iran was successfully protecting its interests in the neighboring countries.

What do the nuclear deal and the expected lift of sanctions from Tehran mean for Arab countries?

First, it means that the US no longer trusts its former allies - Saudi Arabia and a number of other Sunni Arab countries.

Second, Bashar al-Assad - vigorous rival of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar - remains in power.

But it doesn't mean that it will be easy for Iran where the people celebrate the signing of the nuclear deal and waiting for the future prosperity.

Some analysts believe that the agreement with Iran is of huge importance in terms of combating terrorism in the region.

Indeed, namely the deal with the "Great Satan" will inspire the Sunni radicals for jihad (holy war) in Syria and Iraq against Iran and its supporters. This means that the region will be doomed to chaos for many years.

Majority of Arab countries, as well as Israel believe that the nuclear deal with Iran doesn't mean that the latter will refuse from creating a nuclear weapon.

Additionally, lift of sanctions imposed on Iran is a major blow on the economic interests of the neighboring Arab countries.

For example, while Iran gets 30 percent of its national revenues from oil sales, this figure is 90 percent in the Gulf counties. Consequently, the access of Iranian oil to the world market and the possible decrease in oil prices will affect Iran's economy less than oil producing Arab countries.

As a result of the lift of sanctions from Iran, the UAE, which has been playing a key role in the export of Iranian products to world markets, will lose its significance for Tehran.

Moreover, it is not ruled out that Iran will resume its support to the opposition in Bahrain and serious unrests are expected in Kuwait as well.

As for the fate of Iran's frozen funds worth $120 billion which will be returned to the country after the lift of sanctions, Israel believes that Tehran will spend these funds on anti-Israeli terrorist groups. But it is unlikely, since currently, economic revival is more important for Iran and it needs billions of dollars for that.

Kurds are losing the role of the main player in the region

While Turkey regards the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq as the main economic and political ally in the region, Iran doesn't hide its sympathy for the Syrian Kurds and the Democratic Unity Party (PYD), which has close ties to Syrian authorities.

Although previously, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad promised to grant autonomy to Kurds in the country, now it became obvious that this will not happen.

First, both Ankara and Iran are against the creation of this state. Ankara pursues economic interests in this issue, while the territorial factor is priority for Iran.

Iran doesn't rule out that creation of a new state "Kurdistan" in the region will lead to the rise of separatism among Kurds in Iran's Mahabad and activate PJAK, Iranian wing of Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

By the way, earlier, the US also opposed the creation of a Kurdish state in the region.

All these factors suggest that if previously, Kurds were regarded as one of the main players in the region, following the lift of sanctions imposed on Iran, the issue of creation of "Kurdistan" will be irrevocably removed from the agenda.

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Rufiz Hafizoglu is the head of Trend Agency's Arabic news service, follow him on Twitter: @rhafizoglu

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