Official chronicle
Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani President, received the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Yuri Merzlakov from the Russian Federation, Bernard Fassier from France and Matthew Bryza from the United States and Andjey Kasprzyk, a special representative of OSCE chairman, on 14 January.
The current state of negotiations concerning the regulation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh was discussed during the meeting.
Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani President, issued a decree to open a branch of the Moscow State University named M.V.Lomonosov in Baku. Aliyev explained that the desicion was made for Azerbaijani citizens to receive an education from authoritative universities of Russia.
The President ordered the Government to tackle the issues concerning the opening of the Moscow State University branch and establishment of its material-technical base.
As a result of a survey held by the Union of Parliamentary Journalists of Azerbaijan, the President of Heydar Aliyev Foundation, Goodwill Ambassador of UNESCO and ISESCO, MP from Baku's district of Azizbayov, Mehriban Aliyeva, was described as an MP actively protecting the rights of the electors in 2007, said the Chairman of the Union, Elshad Eyvazli, at the press conference as a result of the survey on 15 January. According to him, the survey was held amongst 50 journalists accredited in the Parliament. The survey was aimed at determining the MP of the year for actively protecting the rights of the electors and the position of Azerbaijan within international organizations. As a result of the survey, ten parliamentarians were determined, who actively protected the rights of the electors. They include Mehriban Aliyeva, Jamil Hasanli, Ganira Pashayeva, Novruzali Aslanov, Elmira Akhundova, Arzu Samedbeyli, Iltizam Akberli, Javid Gurbanov, Sabir Rustamkhanli and Ikram Israfli. Bahar Muradova, Eldar Ibrahimov, Rafael Huseynov, Samad Seyidov and Gultekin Hajiyeva were described as MPs who were actively protecting Azerbaijan's position in the international organizations. Ten active MPs of the year were selected which included Hadi Rajabli, Siyavush Novruzov, Aydin Mirzazade, Panah Huseyn and others. In addition, as a result of the survey, five passive MPs were announced, Madar Musayev, Magsud Ibrahimbeyov, Mejid Kerimov, Mikhail Zabelin and Sabir Hajiyev. Azerbaijan Parliament brings together 125 MPs.
The Heydar Aliyev Foundation, in co-operation with the United Nations Population Fund (UNPF), will carry out a project to fight against the women violence. On 16 Jan, the Project on Fighting against Woman's Violation in the 21st century was signed by Mehriban Aliyeva -the President of Heydar Aliyev Foundation, Bruno Pueza- the UN Resident-Co-ordinator and Hijran Huseynova - the Chair of Azerbaijan's State Committee for Families, Women and Children.
The ten months project envisages- enlightening the women of their rights. Special attention will be paid to the Azerbaijan's regions like Ganja, Lenkoran, Nakchivan, as well as the certain villages of Baku. A structure is being planned -to be established within the project, to help the women suffering from violence.
" Azerbaijan is rich with the family traditions where special respect is paid to the women, but like all countries worldwide, there are facts of violence against them as well," said the President of Heydar Aliyev Foundation, Good-Will Ambassador of the UNESCO and ISESCO, Mehriban Aliyeva.
The Heydar Aliyev Foundation priorities includes: resolving the social problems in the country as well as assist in developing the culture, health and education in Azerbaijan, she stated.
The official statistics provided by the Chair of the State Committee for Families, Women and Children also testify violence against the women. According to the data, 3241 such facts have been registered in the country in the past ten months only.
The Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on 16 January that the war with Armenia is not over and accused Armenia of making false statements of its victory.
" Armenia did not win the war. The war is not over. Only the first stage of the war has been completed," Ilham Aliyev said at the opening ceremony of the Olympic Complex in the Guzanli village in the Agdam region of Azerbaijan located close to the occupied territories.
Armenia has occupied the Azerbaijani territories utilising foreign assistance. "The economy of Azerbaijan is 5-6 times stronger than that of Armenia. And the economic development of Azerbaijan has strengthened its position," President Aliyev said.
The President noted a change in Armenia's position in demanding independence for Nagorno-Karabakh. Five or six years ago Armenia demanded independence for the occupied territories, but now this position has changed.
Nagorno-Karabakh will never become independent. This statement is also supported by the international mediators, the President said. " Armenia unwillingly accepts this reality. Earlier we spoke about vacating four of the regions, but now we speak about seven."
The President also touched upon the territory of Armenia today. "In 1918, the city of Iravan (now Yerevan) was given to the Armenians. That was a big mistake. The Iravan Khanate was Azerbaijani land and the Armenians were just guests living there," he said.
The Azerbaijani President voiced his opinion on the claims by international organizations regarding the situation of human rights in Azerbaijan, and called it unjust. "International organizations are using double standards in this connection. They should concentrate on accusing Armenia, which has violated the rights of more than 1mln people," he said.
Improving the maintenance conditions of the Azerbaijani internally displaced persons (IDPs) is priority issue for Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on 17 January at the opening ceremony of the Olympic Complex in the Guzanli village in the Agdam region of Azerbaijan located close to the occupied territories.
President Aliyev's visit to the Agdam region began on 17 January. The President visited the Heydar Aliyev Monument and attended the opening ceremony of the Heydar Aliyev Museum.
In 2007-2011, AZN 5mln will be spent to improve the maintenance conditions of the IDPs. Up-to-date settlements will be constructed for over 220,000 people, the President said.
Sixteen decrees and orders were signed in order to improve the living conditions of IDPs. This year more attention will be paid to these issues, he said.
"The removal of the last camp settlement at the end of 2007 was a great achievement for Azerbaijan," Ilham Aliyev said.
The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, arrived at the frontline during his visit to Azerbaijan's district of Agdam.
"I have become very familiar with the battle situation on the frontline, observed the enemy positions and have spoken to soldiers," said Ilham Aliyev in the ceremony of restore the gas supply to Azerbaijan's district of Agjebedi.
According to the State Head, Azerbaijan can regain its occupied land without military operations as well. " Azerbaijan economic capacity and image in the international arena have increased. However, the military power is significant. Therefore, vital work is being carried out in this regard," Ilham Aliyev said.
On 18 January the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, issued an order increasing the amount of the special Olympic scholarship by 50% to AZN 750.
On 18 January the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, received the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, Ambassador Yuri Merzylakov of the Russian Federation; Ambassador Bernard Fassier of France; Deputy Assistant Secretary of the State, Matthew Bryza - United States and OSCE Chairman-in-Office's Personal Representative, Andzey Kasprzyk.
The meeting covered the talks on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement.
Foreign policy
The influential US Senator, Republican Richard Lugar, said in Baku on 14 January that Azerbaijan's security is significant for the USA.
" Azerbaijan is a very important country for us, where notable changes are taking place," he told a press-conference in Baku.
He said that the USA also co-operates with the neighbors of Azerbaijan who already are in possession of defence and with the countries that already have the elements of weapons of mass destruction. "The US special services will do its best in order to ensure the security of the region," he said. According to Lugar, the USA is interested in co-operating with Azerbaijan with regards to the security and intends for this to continue.
The Parliamentary Initiative Group of the South Caucasus may stop functioning.
"Despite repeated appeals, Armenia has not formed a delegation to the Parliamentary Initiative Group of the South Caucasus and no one knows if the structure will keep functioning," MP Siyavush Novruzov, the leader of the Azerbaijani Delegation to the Initiative Group, stated to Trend on 14 January.
The Parliamentary Initiative Group of the South Caucasus was established at the advice of the British NGO LINKS. The task of the group is to expand relations among the three South Caucasus countries, which is supported by the Council of Europe and European Union. Ten MPs from each country, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, are represented in the group. The leader of the group is changed every six months. Azerbaijan is currently chairing the group. Under the Charter, the organization should hold meetings twice a year.
Novruzov said that no one knows why Armenia has not formed a delegation. LINKS leadership and some other structures of the European Union officially appealed to the Armenian Parliament to disclose its position concerning the functioning of the Group. However, Armenia has not responded to such appeals.
" Azerbaijan is interested in continuing the Parliamentary Initiative Group of the South Caucasus. The issues were included on the agenda during meetings of the group, which are protected by Georgia. Armenia remains the only country. And, therefore, Armenia does not want to attend at the meetings of the group," Novruzov said.
hen speaking at a press conference in Baku on 14 January, influential American Senator, Republican Richard Lugar, voiced his regret on the human rights situation in Azerbaijan, including the arrest of journalists and the demonstrations.
He noted the importance of political evolution in Azerbaijan. "It was for this purpose that we came here and met with the representatives of the civil society," he said. Speaking of the parliamentary elections of 2005, Lugar said that the international community noted some progress and shortcomings as well. "To my mind, the Government is taking into consideration the world's opinion," he said.
The world community's support for peaceful settlement of conflicts should be intensified, Valeriy Chechelashvili, the Secretary General of the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development - GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova), said to journalists.
"That also concerns the UN's draft resolution on frozen conflicts in the GUAM territory, which was released by the General Assembly at the end of last year. And now our countries are holding active consultations with our potential allies to achieve a progress in the settling," Chechelashvili said.
"We are ready to cooperate with any organization or an initiative group which would assist us in peaceful settling of on-going conflicts," he said.
As to Kosovo, he said that international community unanimously believes that Kosovo is a special case and it cannot be a precedent for settlement of any other frozen conflict.
"We will patiently explain our position at all international forums. We are gaining more and more associates supporting our position," Chechelashvili said.
Establishment of peacekeeping forces of GUAM has never been among the most urgent tasks of the organization, he said. "Though the issue is still being considered."
GUAM member-countries, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, are confident that the UN General Assembly will accept the resolution on frozen conflicts in the territory of these countries.
"We continue active consultations with General Assembly countries and we treat passing the resolution positively," Valeri Chechelashvili, the Secretary General of the organization, stated in Baku on 15 January. "Certainly, there are countries which do not share our point of view, but I believe that most countries support us," he said.
The goals of the organization are the further institutionalization of the organization, as well as implementation of concrete projects and support of the world community for peaceful settlement of conflicts in GUAM member-countries.
The construction of the railway line from Nakchivan to Turkey's province of Kars, will help in withdrawing this far region of Azerbaijan from the transport blockade, said the Head of the Turkish province.
Surrounded by Iran, Turkey and Armenia, the Azerbaijan's region of Nakchivan, with the population of 384,500, has been deprived of the railway and car link with Azerbaijan since the beginning of 1990. Earlier the links were carried out via the territory of Armenia, after which a conflict started in 1988. In December 2007, a passenger bus route was opened via the territory of Iran. Before that, the population of Nakchivan could only come to Baku through the air links.
"If the 215km railway stretch from Nakchivan to Kars via the territory of Turkey's Igdir province is constructed, it will revive the transport artery of the Autonomous Republic," the Head of Igdir Municipality, Nureddin Aras, reported to Trend on 17 January.
The agreement on the construction of 105km railway- 'Baku-Tbilisi-Kars' beyond Armenia, was signed at the end of November. The cost of the project is $422mln, but after considering the infrastructure it is assumed that it will be nearly $600mln.
"Nakchivan's center is connected with border of Turkey through Sadarak railway stretch, but later the line breaks off. If this line is extended up to Kars, it will revive the economy of Nakchivan and Igdir. This is a very perspective construction, considering that the railway corridor will connect Baku with the countries of Central Asia, and Kars with the Europe," said the Head of the Municipality.
However, Aras stated that the feasibility study for the Nakchivan-Kars railway project is absent, and it is not worthy to expect support from Turkey for this project because this initiative is not considered in Turkey.
"Earlier, the importance of such project was presented to the Turkish officials, but there was no reaction," Aras said. He considers that Azerbaijan may be more interested in financing the project. "The economic support from the Azerbaijani side would be expedient," he said adding that he is aware of the positive attitude of Nakchivan and Baku, which supports the idea of this construction.
Yet, it was failure to receive the comments in the press-service of Nakchivan and Azerbaijan's Ministry of Transport.
Azerbaijani economist expert, Sabit Bagirov, considers that before speaking about the expediency of the project, it needs to consider its profitability. "If the studies confirm that the profitability is high, it is possible to realize it," the Head of the Center for Political and Economic Studies, Sabit Bagirov, reported to Trend on 18 January. The expert says that it needs to consider this project, from the economic and political point of view.
Of 105km Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway beyond Armenia, 76km passes via the territory of Turkey and 29km via Georgia. Azerbaijan will allocate $200mln credit for the construction of the Georgian section of the railway (for a period of 25 years, with 1% annual rate).
Despite the conflict, the air flights 'Baku-Nakchivan' are carried out via the territory of Armenia.
Turkey should stabilize its relations with Armenia, Matthew Bryza, the United States Co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group, stated to journalists during his visit to Baku on 18 January.
Turkey closed its borders with Armenia after demanding liberation of the Azerbaijani occupied territories. Turkey does not recognize the accusations by Armenia regarding the so-called Armenian genocide, which was committed by the Ottoman Empire in 1915. "We should settle the Nagorno-Karabakh issue," Bryza said.
Discussing the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, Bryza mentioned tackling the Azerbaijani and Armenian positions in the negotiation process. "I feel that has been both sides have been productive but there are still problems to work over," Bryza noted.
No one may predict the results of negotiations before the presidential elections in Armenia.
The South Caucasus countries suffer from the unsettled conflicts, Lydie Polferm, an author of the European Parliament's report on "The European Union's More Effective with respect to south Caucasus: Transition from Promises to Actions", sad in an exclusive interview for Trend.
She said that the South Caucasus countries inherited the conflicts from the Soviet period. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict particularly complicates the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, poses threats to security in the region.
With this respect Polferm offers to use rich experience of the EU. "I hope the conflicting sides will soon resolve the problem. The settlement of the conflict is important for both countries and population of the region, particularly, refugees who have been living in poor conditions for over 10 years," the diplomat said.
Polferm said that the attempts taken for use of force resolution of the conflict would be the most terrible decision. The victory through force will be never firm or establish political stability in the region.
Polferm especially stressed the necessity of seeking compromises with respect to solve conflicts. "We support the mediation efforts by the OSCE Minsk Group, while the EU can render feasible assistance so that the sides could go to proximity and dialogue. The EU has no intention to dictate its initiatives, but simply offers its experience for use in such situations," Polferm said.
POLITICAL MOVEMENTS
Dalga youth organization of Azerbaijan will support none of the presidential candidates and will not take part in the meetings in support of any candidate. Araz Gasimov, acting chairman of the Dalga youth organization said at a press conference held in Baku. Araz Gasimov has been appointed acting chairman of the organization as a result of an Executive Board decision. The reason of the appointment is attributed to the fact that the current chairman of the organization Vafa Jafarova is continuing her education in Georgia.
According to Gasimov, Dalga youth organization will contribute to the presidential elections to be held this year by activating processes in society. Activists of the organization will carry out enlightenment works in connection to the election.
Dalga youth organization was founded in February of 2005. The movement aims to support the establishment of a jural state and civil society in Azerbaijan, the propaganda of responsibility, concept of active and democratic citizenship, the principle of humanism, modern culture among the young and to carry out enlightenment works to activate the participation of youth in public life of the country.
Eldaniz Guliyev, the chairman of the Azerbaijani United Opposition, said that the intelligentsia will not support the candidates for the presidential post from other political parties.
The presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan on 15 October 2008. Isa Gambar, the chairman of the Musavat party, Igbal Agazadeh, chairman of Umid party, and Fazil Gazanfaroglu, chairman of Great Establishment party, stated their decision to take part in the upcoming presidential elections in the country.
"The intelligentsia of Azerbaijan may support the candidate which may provide democratic reforms on the threshold of the presidential elections," Guliyev said to Trend.
The Azerbaijani United Opposition Intelligentsia was established in 2003. The organization received official registration from the Justice Ministry. The goal of the organization is to protect the rights of Azerbaijani intelligentsia and to reach a truce between the opposition and Authorities.
Representatives of the Azerbaijani opposition parties discussed with the US senator, Richard Lugar, the forthcoming presidential elections to be held in the country. Eldar Namazov, the head of the For Azerbaijan public forum reported on 14 January.
Lugar, who is currently in Azerbaijan, held discussions with the representatives of the opposition parties on 14 January. According to Namazov, the senator was informed of the situation concerning freedom of speech in the country. As the meeting was held privately, Namazov did not divulge any information on the discussions held.
The chairman of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan Ali Kerimli, leader of LPA Lala Shovket, the head of Musavat party Isa Gambar and Eldar Namazov participated in the meeting.
Member of the Musavat Party, editor-in-chief of Yeni Musavat newspaper intends to take the Party to court.
"I will take the party to court in order to cancel their decision to become a member of the Union of Parties of Liberal-Democratic Reforms of Europe," the member of the party, Rauf Arifoglu, reported to Trend on 14 January.
The decision to join the Union of Parties of Liberal-Democratic Reforms of Europe was made at Party's meeting on 23 December 2006. Musavat Party became the member of the Union at the meeting in Berlin on 18 October.
The representative of Musavat Party in the Parliament, MP Nasib Nasibli and the editor-in-chief of Yeni Musavat newspaper, Rauf Arifoglu, stated that the decision is wrong. Nasibli said that he resigned due to the issue that the spirit of the Union does not correspond to the spirit of Musavat.
Arifoglu made an appeal to the Party's Central Control and Inspection Commission with a request to determine whether its membership to the Union meets the Program and Charter of the party. However, the Commission did not consider this appeal.
Arifoglu was chairman of the Musavat Party.
"The Commission considers my complaint to be groundless and that there was no law broken in joining the Union. The facts that I was presented was not assessed, determined and denied. I expected the Commission to make such an absurd decision. I am dissatisfied with the Commission's decision. Therefore, I need to seek the truth elsewhere," he said.
The editor-in-chief said that he will determine the possibility to bring the Commission to court. "I am preparing the documents and after presidential elections I will make an appeal to the court. I am not going to give up the principles that I consider to be right," he added.
Opposition Musavat Party was established in 1992. The party's leader Isa Gambnar was the ex-speaker of Azerbaijan Parliament (1992-1993) and candidate for presidency in 2003 presidential elections. The party is being represented in parliament by four MPs.
A range of Azerbaijani opposition parties may boycott the upcoming presidential election if no changes made to the current situation.
"The Azerbaijani opposition parties are not ready to participate at the presidential elections. The current situation amongst the opposition parties is not optimistic," Rauf Arifoglu, a member of the Musavat party and chief editor of the Yeni Musavat party, stated to Trend on 15 January.
The presidential election will be held in Azerbaijan on 15 October 2008.
A split amongst the opposition parties of the country has been observed. "The Opposition is not ready to attend the upcoming presidential elections in the country. The opposition parties were late to their preparations for the impeding presidential election. The only way of the opposition is to boycott the approaching elections if no measures are taken. There is no opposition party which can really stand against the Authorities during the upcoming presidential election in Azerbaijan," Arifoglu added.
There is no leader in the opposition camp.
The opposition party Musavat was founded in 1992. Isa Gambar, the present Chairman of the Party was the Ex-Speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament (Milli Majlis) in 1992-1993 and the candidate nominated to the Presidential elections held in the country in 2003. Five MPs represents the Party in the Parliament of the Country.
The Azerbaijani opposition has very weak opportunities to win the presidential elections.
"In case no force-majeure take place, they will not be able to rival the authorities," Rasim Musabeyov, an independent political scientist said to Trend on 15 January.
The presidential elections will take place in Azerbaijan on 15 October.
The bloc Azadliq including the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, the Liberal Party and the Citizens and Development Party declared it would not take part in the elections until the election committees are reformed. Other opposition parties will participate in the elections. The governing New Azerbaijan Party will nominate the current President Ilham Aliyev.
According to Musabeyov, the authorities are much stronger than the opposition in terms of finance, media and other resources. The opposition has little opportunity to gain the support of society.
"Naturally, the loss at previous elections contributed to weakening the opposition," Musabeyov said.
The authorities are expected to take populist measures, including an increase in wages and pensions, in the year of the elections. That will help to gain the trust of the non-politicized population, he said.
None of the candidates from the Azerbaijani opposition have a chance to win the first round of presidential elections, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan (DPA) Sardar Jalaloglu said.
"The reality is that it is impossible for a number of the candidates from the opposition to win a place from the Government in the first round of the elections. Only during the second round of the elections can a candidate from the united opposition have the chance to win," the chairman of DPA said to Trend.
The regular presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan in October. Parties from the opposition, Musavat, Umid, Great Establishment have announced that they will take part in the presidential elections with their own candidate. The ruling party Yeni Azerbaijan also announced that the current president Ilham Aliyev will be nominated for the elections.
According to Jalaloglu, the unity of opposition candidates and their individual victory in the first stage does not seem realistic. "The Government has the recourses and opportunities for a large campaign which the opposition does not posses. The opposition is splitting due to self-contradiction and differences," Jalaloglu said.
He added that compared to the opposition parties, Yeni Azerbaijan have more members and more material opportunities in addition to Government resources which increase their chances.
If the second round of elections are held, all the candidates who rival a candidate from the ruling party must unite, Jalaloglu said.
"To this effect the candidates from the opposition must now make obligations that if the second round of elections is held all of them will support a candidate who has more chance. Otherwise, by not uniting at the decisive moment the opposition will make its biggest mistake," said the chairman of the DPA.
The Musavat party which will take part in the elections with its own candidate does not agree with the DPA position and says that if the elections will be fair, the opposition can win in the first round of the elections. By making such statements the DPA chairman seeks reasons to substantiate his participation in the elections, Arif Hajili, the head of the Central Executive Body of the party said to Trend.
"The election experience of Azerbaijan shows that there is no second round in the presidential elections, all is decided in the first round. If the elections are fair, the opposition will win, but if there is falsification, the government will not allow the holding of the second round," Hajili said.
According to Hajili, though there are great number of candidates from the opposition, Musavat can win in the first round of the elections due not to votes of political parties, but due to the masses in the country who are dissatisfied with the Government.
The ruling party Yeni Azerbaijan does not see a strong rival in the elections and says that Ilham Aliyev will win in the first round of the elections and there is no need for a second round.
The right DPA was founded in 1991 by Sardar Jalaloglu. Up to January of last year the party stuck to a radical position against the Government. Later a new political course was developed on the establishment of talks with the Government.
The opposition party Musavat was founded in 1992. Isa Gembar, the present Chairman of the Party was the Speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament (Milli Majlis) from 1992-1993 and a candidate in the 2003 Presidential elections. Five MPs represent the party in the Parliament of the country.
The Open Society Party (OSP) of Azerbaijan led by Rasul Guliyev, who emigrated to the United States, will change the political course of the party.
"Radical political course does not create success for anyone," Yagub Abbasov, OSP Deputy Chairman, stated to trend on 15 January.
According to the Deputy Chairman, the party is ready to cooperate with the authorities on common issues.
The ex-speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament, Rasul Guliyev, was leader of the opposition Open Society Party from 2000 to February 2007. Guliyev was chairman of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan (DPA). Guliyev's supporters left DPA, held their own congress and founded the Open Society Party.
Abbasov said that the OSP leader submitted a proposal on reconciliation for a democratic future of Azerbaijan. The party is planning to introduce a constructive political course.
Difference appeared between Panah Huseyn-the member of the deputies' group of Musavat and the Musavat Party. "Difference between me and Musavat Party are linked with the ideological issues, and have taken a serious shape," Panah Huseyn reported to Trend.
The deputies' group of Musavat comprises of five MPs. Panah Huseyn is not a member of the Musavat Party, but functions in the group.
"Over the recent period, I have been fighting for the Muslim-democratic ideology. It needs to achieve synthesis of the democratic principles, with the national religious values. I see the future of Azerbaijan, only in this. But the Musavat Party realizes liberal-democratic ideology and therefore, the difference appeared between us," the MP added. According to him, the difference is of principal character. However, despite this, Huseyn said that he is not going to leave the group.
If the democratic conditions are not established, none of the candidates from the opposition taking part in the elections, will have a chance to win, Lala Shovket, one of the opposition leaders said to Trend.
The regular presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan, in the October of the current year. Several opposition parties have announced that they will take part in the elections with their own candidate.
Azadlig bloc including three oppositional parties announced that if minimal democratic conditions are not provided, the bloc will boycott the presidential elections. The bloc can participate in the elections any time, but in order to take part in the elections they demand that the election commission should be set up on an equal basis, and the freedom of assembly and speech is provided, Shovket, the co-founder of the Azadlig bloc said.
"We want to take part in the true elections, but not in a game or an imitation. If the minimal pre-election democratic conditions are provided, Azadlig bloc will take part in the elections. Otherwise, the next show will take place, and we do not want to play the role of the decoration in this performance," Shovket said.
Azadlig bloc wants the election process and election commissions -free from the influence of the authorities, and also the establishment of the freedom of assembly of the citizens stated in the Constitution, Shovket added. If journalists are arrested for what they say, then it impossible to talk about a democracy, she said.
Azadlig bloc wants all the opposition to have a common position, however can not protest against the individuals who decided to take part in the elections, Shovket said.
"Many can state that they will take part in the elections. However, everybody knows that there are only three or four real candidates for the presidency. They are indeed recognized by the people within the country and by the international organizations. If someone wants to take part in the elections with the absence of the democratic conditions, it is their own personal affairs. I unambiguously state that in this case none of the candidates have a chance to win, since it is not an election," the co-founder of the Azadlig bloc said.
In case the Azadlig bloc does not take part in the elections, it will support none of the candidates from the opposition, Lala Shovket, the co-chairman of the bloc said to Trend. "If we boycott the elections, it means that we do not consider elections to be democratic and fair. Therefore, we may not support any candidate," Shovket said.
In Oct 2008, the regular presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan. The Azadlag bloc, including the three oppositional parties, announced that it will boycott the elections in case the democratic conditions are not provided.
The parties Musavat, Umid (Hope) and Great Establishment have announced that they will take part in the elections with their own candidates.
The Azadlig bloc wants the election process and the election commissions to be set free from the influence of the authorities, as well as the establishment of the freedom of assembly of the citizens stated in the Constitution. Otherwise, none of the candidates taking part in the elections will have a chance to win, Shovket added.
"Opposition should seriously approach their participation in the presidential elections, as this process is very important for the fate of Azerbaijan. We are responsible before the nation, for all the decisions we make," Shovket said.
The boycott of the presidential elections by the bloc will be a loss for the candidates and they will not be able to gain 50+1 votes of the voters, Hasan Kerimov, the deputy chairman of the Popular Front Party of (APFP) Azerbaijan of the Azadlig bloc said to Trend. According to Kerimov, APFP has 47,000 members.
The Citizens and Development Party has 4,000 members, and the Liberal Party more than 40,000.
The boycott of the elections by the Azadlig bloc will not be a great loss for the organization, oppositional Musavat party stated. "Because in the elections we will try to gain the votes of dissatisfied voters of the country, not the political parties," Arif Hajili, the head of the Central Executive Body of Musavat said to Trend.
According to the official data of CEC of Azerbaijan, the number of the Azerbaijani voters amounts to 4.600.000 people. The general number of Azadlig bloc members totals 91,000 people, which is the 2% of the general number of the voters in the country.
On the Eve of Elections
The Central Elections Commission (CEC) repeatedly appeals the international organizations to assist in injecting the names of Azerbaijani Citizens of Armenian origin residing in Nagorno-Karabakh in electors' list.
The Azerbaijani citizens of Armenian origin like other nations residing in Nagorno-Karabakh should be authorized with an election right and Azerbaijan is prepared for it," Mazahir Panahov, the chairman of the CEC, said on 20 January.
In connection with the presidential elections scheduled for October, the elections lists are being clarified. Last year 4,218 electors were registered in Khankandi constituency commission №122. There are five constituencies in Khankandi. The final lists will be developed by the end of April.
According to Panahov, it was decided to use the assistance of international organizations in injecting the Azerbaijani citizens' names in the electors' list. He said that international organizations take passive part.
NAGORNO-KARABAKH
Influential US Senator, Republican Richard Lugar, said in Baku on 14 January that currently he does not see a solution to the conflict. Answering the questions regarding the strengthening of the position of the international community in settling the conflict, Lugar replied "settling the conflict is important for the USA and I see general efforts towards it". He highlighted his optimism regarding the peaceful solution of the conflict.
In addition, Lugar touched upon the activity of the Armenian diasporas in the USA, which lobby recognition of the so-called 'Armenian genocide'. "The Armenian diasporas are more than Armenians in Armenia," he said
The Armenian Armed Forces have violated the ceasefire agreement from the displaced village of Kuropatkino in the region of Khojavand of Azerbaijan on 13 January from 4:20pm to 4:30pm, and near the village of Tapgaragoyunlu in the region of Goranboy by firing at Azerbaijani positions on 14 January from 4:50am to 5:15am.
The National Army of Azerbaijan retaliated and no casualties were reported
Unsettled conflicts are impeding the stability in the South Caucasus, positive changes and turning to institutional reforming, the EU Special Representative for South Caucasus Peter Semneby said in Yerevan during the international conference 'Extended Black Sea Region: Prospects of International and Regional Security' on 14 January, Novosti-Armenia quoted.
"Despite the economic progress, the region is facing problems and confrontations which do not directly proceed from economically unfavourable conditions, yet are linked with security issues," he said.
The difficulties are connected with the closed borders in the region - between Russia and Georgia, as well as Armenia and Azerbaijan and Armenia and Turkey, which impede the potential use of the region, Semneby added.
According to Semneby, a range of short-time benefits which the population has gained from reforms particularly carried in the field of freedom of speech and human rights do not have immediate economic constituents.
"The region may be considered as a single whole only when the reforms in these fields are carried out simultaneously in all countries of the region, as well as in case the countries pay special attention to the settlement of more prospective tasks," he said.
The EU has recently began forming more well-ordered institutional relations with its partners in the region, particularly within the framework of the New European Neighbourhood policy and through developing relations with Russia and Turkey, Semneby said.
"These are our first steps in the stage-by-stage development, although, EU's involvement in the processes is of a probable nature," he stressed.
The conference on Expanded Black Sea Region: Prospective and regional security was organized by the Armenian international policy research group - AIPRG with the assistance of NATO, OSCE, the Union of Graduates from the Yerevan State University and the Dutch embassy.
The participants in the conference are Ambassador Vladimir Kazimirov, the former co-chair of the Minsk Group, Ambassador Matthew Bryza, the co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as delegates from Turkey, Romania, Greece, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia.
he British Foreign Office strongly recommends travel companies do not implement trips to the Azerbaijani occupied territories, Khazar Ibrahim, the press-secretary of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, stated to journalists on 14 January.
The issue is over the British tour operator Samuel Travel, which placed an advertisement about trips to Azerbaijani occupied territories.
"The British Government recommends its companies not to book such trips to Azerbaijani occupied territories or to appeal to Azerbaijan to receive permission for possible trips to the territory after an appeal from the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry to the British Government," Ibrahim said. Nagorno-Karabakh including other seven occupied territories are the Azerbaijani territories, he noted.
The possibility of the regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will rise after the presidential election in Armenia, Pieter Semnebi, the special representative of the European Union on South Caucasus, stated to journalists on 14 January, Armenia-News reported.
"We cannot lose our hope for regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The diplomatic negotiation process has been continued and all measures have been taken to settle the conflict. I hope that the presidential election in Armenia will give the possibility to attract special attention to the problem," he stated.
Sabnebi noted that the Karabakh conflict can only be settled peacefully. Commenting on the connection between the Kosovo conflicts to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Sabnebi, stated that no connection was between the both conflicts.
"The peaceful negotiations on the regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must be continued," he said.
The Karabakh Liberation Organization (KLO) has condemned the plans of the OSCE Minsk Group's co-chairs to visit occupied Azerbaijani Kankandi region via Armenia.
"The co-chairs are demonstrating their disrespect for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity," KLO reported on 14 January.
On 13 January, the OSCE Minsk Group's co-chairs began their visit to the region. After visiting Azerbaijan they will leave for Armenia and continue to the occupied Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh region. KLO believes the co-chairs' assurance that the visit to Nagorno-Karabakh via Armenia is for security purposes is an excuse.
"The fact that a group of Azerbaijanis cultural persons safely visited the region in the summer proves that their argument is groundless. The co-chairs are taking such steps because Armenia has requested that from them. They are openly demonstrating disrespect for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Therefore, Azerbaijan should reject the Minsk Group's Mediation in the settlement process," the report by KLO says.
According to the Spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, Khazar Ibrahim, there is nothing extraordinary in the co-chairs' visiting Nagorno-Karabakh via Armenia. The issue was coordinated between the sides, he said. The co-chairs should visit the occupied territories via both countries.
The recent talks on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement took place constructively, the US Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Matthew Bryza, briefed the media on 14 January.
"It is possible to come to an agreement. We should exchange our views with collages from Yerevan for this purpose," he said.
According to him, Azerbaijan has its own wishes and it is normal.
In addition, he said that the proposals made in Madrid have aspects dissatisfying Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, both sides should come to any compromise. According to him, signing any documents depends on the presidents.
Bryza said that he can not predict whether Azerbaijan will accept the pack of proposals made in Madrid. "We, as co-chairs, work on this issue and establish a bridge between the sides," he said.
"I think that the sides will accept the document, but we should improve it," the US co-chair said. According to him, it is very fair proposal and supports balance between the two countries.
As regards to the elections in Armenia, Bryza said that the elections do not mean completion of the process, the talks will be continuing.
The Armenian Armed Forces violated the ceasefire regime by firing at the Azerbaijani National Army from the positions located near the Seysulan and Chilaburt villages in Terter region of Azerbaijan from 9.00pm to 9.15pm on 14 Jan and from 1.35am to 1.45am on 15 Jan, near the Javahirli and Shurabad villages of Aghdam region of Azerbaijan from 12.15am to 1.55am, as well as nearby Goradiz village in Azerbaijani Fizuli region from 4.00am to 4.20am 30pm on 29 December, the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry reported.
The National Army of Azerbaijan retaliated, no casualties were reported.
On 15 January, the Armenian President Robert Kocharian received the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Yuri Merzlakov ( Russia), Matthew Bryza ( United States) and Bernard Fassier ( France), who arrived in Yerevan within the framework of a regional visit.
Andzey Kasprzyk, the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, also participated in the meeting, the Press Service of the Armenian President reported to Novosti-Armenia. The issues regarding the current stage of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict were discussed at the meeting.
The co-chairs arrived in Yerevan on 14 January. On 16 January, they will head for Nagorno-Karabakh and will return to Yerevan on 17 January.
On 13-14 January the co-chairs visited Baku.
The negotiations on peaceful settling of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have been held within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group since 1992.
Baku believes that the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh cannot depend on the presidential elections in Azerbaijan and Armenia, Araz Azimov, the Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister, stated on 15 January.
Presidential elections will be held in Armenia and Azerbaijan in February and October. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, who since 1994 have undertaken the mediation mission on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, last December for the first time submitted to the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia written proposals on the resolution of the conflict. After the meeting in Madrid Elmar Mammadyarov, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister, stated that in this way the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs wanted to prevent attempts by the new Governments in Azerbaijan and Armenia to pass upon the results achieved over the past three years.
Meanwhile, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, Russian Ambassador Yuriy Merzlyakov, US Ambassador Matthew Bryza and French Ambassador Bernard Fassier launched the next visit to the region. Arriving in Baku Bryza told journalists about the possibilities of an oral agreement to resolve the conflict before the presidential elections are held in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
According to Azimov, over the past three years the sides achieved definite results. "However, they are still insufficient for fundamental changes in talks," Azimov said.
He said that the proposals submitted by the Minsk Group in Madrid, contain some milestones which should be discussed. "We will continue talks on the achievement of an agreement on all principles," the Deputy Minister said.
The Venice Commission of the Council of Europe (CE) is ready to render the legal assistance for settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "We can give the legal advices which will help to settle the issue. However, that requires a political agreement of the conflicting countries," said Janni Bukikkio, the Secretary of the Venice Commission, to Trend on 16 January.
The Venice Commission cooperated with the EU and OSCE on the conflicts in Kosovo, Trans-Dniester, Serbia- Montenegro, as well as South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Neither of the conflicts has been resolved so far. That is caused by the political and legal restrictions, Bukikkio said.
According to the Charter, the Venice Commission shall receive an appeal to join the settling process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The OSCE Minsk Group can apply to the Venice Commission for the legal assistance in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Secretary said. "That would be more sensible, as the Minsk Group has been involved in the settling process for a long time."
The Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group expect the base principles of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement to be approved by the Presidents of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President, Robert Kocharyan, Novosti Armenia reports.
"We expect possible approval of the base principles by the heads of the two countries, which will contain orders to the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia to begin work on the text of the future agreement, obviously with our participation," said Yuri Merzlyakov, the Russian Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, on 17 January in Yerevan.
He stated that at present, no official act is expected to be signed at this stage. "When the base principles will be coordinated finally, work will be initiated to devise the text of intermediate or temporary, but a peaceful closing agreement," he said.
In addition, the Russian mediator said that devising the closing document will take quite a long time because it will contain more details than the base principles.
The OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs will take part in monitoring, which will be held on the contact line of the Armenian-Azerbaijani militaries on 16 January, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reports to Trend. The next visit by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, Yuri Merzlakov, Bernard Fassier and Matthew Bryza has started. Today, the co-chairs will meet with the Azerbaijani President and Foreign Minister. Under the mandate of the private representative of the OSCE functioning chairman, monitoring is planned to be held on the Azerbaijani-Armenian frontline near the village of Yusifjanli of the Agdam region of Azerbaijan. Imre Palatinus and Antal Hertich, assistants to the chairman of the OSCE, will take part in the monitoring by representing Azerbaijan. Andzey Kasprzyk, a private representative of the OSCE functioning chairman, as well as Jaslan Nurtazin, Piter Ki and Miroslav Vimetal will attend the monitoring from the Armenian side.
Ilham Aliyev- the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Robert Kocharyan- the Armenian President, demonstrate an analogous position on the base principles of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, Mathew Bryza, the US Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, said on 17 January in Yerevan, Novosti Armenia reports.
"Despite that we do not expect to reach to a concluding agreement during this visit of the co-chairs to the region, we see that the presidents of the two countries demonstrate an analogous position on the base principles of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement," he said.
He stated that the time does not play a significant role in the process of reaching a single position on the base principles between the Heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
"We do not want to establish the false dates for signing the agreement, but prefer to provide the necessary period to the presidents to widely analyze each proposal, sentence or the letter," he said.
Bryza spelled out that it needs to expect as long as, both the presidents move in a correct direction.
In his turn, the French Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Bernard Fassier, said that taking into consideration the positions of the two sides, the mediators felt the necessity to present the several explained concrete items.
"We explained to both the sides that our proposals do not contain traps or ambiguity for anybody. They are the best proposals which our countries may suggest, to reach on a compromise in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," he said.
he mediators of the OSCE Minsk Group supports the prompt involvement of Karabakh as a full-value side, in the talks on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, said Bernard Fassier, the French Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, on 17 January in Yerevan, Novosti Armenia reports.
"As soon as Karabakh is involved in the negotiation process as one of the negotiation sides, better it is. Especially, the position of the head of ' Nagorno-Karabakh Republic' testifies that it is fully aware of the negotiation process," Fassier said.
He stated that removal of 'NKR' from the talks was not decided by the co-chairs. "Before Robert Kocharyan's coming into the power, Karabakh was one of the negotiation sides, but after his election as the president of Armenia, it was decided that Armenia may better present the position of Karabakh," Fassier said.
Answering the question regarding the possibility of changing the format of the talks on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement after the presidential elections in Armenia, especially after Kocharyan not nominate for the third term, Fassier replied that this issue will not be decided by the co-chairs, but by the Armenian side.
The Co-chair stated that Khankendi's participation in the negotiation process is desirable, but the time will show how this issue will be decided because according to him, currently it is difficult to involve 'NKR' as a negotiable side in the negotiation process.
Speaking about the issue, whether Azerbaijan will protest against Karabakh's participation in the talks, Yuri Merzlyakov, the Russian Co-chair of the Minsk Group, said that yet mediators do not glance at this possibility so far and intend to resolve the problem gradually.
"At present, all the sides agree with the base principles on which we are working, so we do not consider it necessary to change the format of the talks at the current stage. However, while devising a closing agreement, 'NKR' will have to participate in the talks because all the key items of the agreement will directly deal with Karabakh," Merzlyakov said.
In addition, he stated that it does not mean that 'NKR' will be involved in the talks at the concluding stage because devising the concluding agreement will be more difficult and longer process. "I am not pessimistic in this process," the Co-chair said.
The OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs hope to reach a progress in settling of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Baku, Yerevan and Khankandi are prepared to work in this direction, Yuri Merzlakov, the Russian Co-chair stated.
"The 2008 may be a decisive year, as both the countries will elect their Presidents in 2008. The new elected President will try to tackle the most serious problems initially," Bernard Fassier, the French Co-chair stated.
"We hope that the Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents will use all of their chances, and reach to a certain progress in settling of the conflict," Fassier said.
The key basis principles, proposed by the Co-chairs, have already been agreed, Merzlakov said. "Our approach is formed on three principles: territorial integrity, self-definition and the refusal of force and violence.
The Azerbaijani Community of Nagorno-Karabakh will join the negotiation process, only when there are more details as it is impossible to manage without it, Bernard Fassier, the French Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, briefed the media in Baku. "The Community's joining the talks depends on the Azerbaijani side, which at present, substitutes it in the conflict settlement process," Fassier said.
The Co-chairs considers it necessary to at this stage to create some favorable atmosphere between the conflicting sides. "The neighbors should live as neighbor. Formerly the neighbor was enemy, but at present, it should be partner and at the end of settlement, it should become a good neighbor," Fassier said.
Involving Azerbaijan community Nagorno-Karabakh in the negotiation process depends upon Azerbaijan, Yuri Merzlakov, the Russian Co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group, stated to journalists in Baku on 18 January.
Bernard Fassier, the France Co-chair OSCE Minsk Group, mentioned the discussions held in Yerevan to include Nagorno-Karabakh into the negotiation process. "We are usually prepared for the negotiations and the time will come to include Nagorno-Karabakh in the negotiations," Merzlakov stated.
According to Merzlakov, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue may be included in the negotiations process once the sides agree the basic principles and start working over the agreement. There will be a great deal of information concerning Nagorno-Karabakh in the agreement document.
The Armenian Armed Forces violated the cease fire regime by firing at the Azerbaijani National Army from the positions located near the Kuropatkino village in the Khojavand region of Azerbaijan from 1.50pm to 2.00pm on 18 January; and from the Javahirli village in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan from 5.25am to 5.45am on 19 January, the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry reported. The National Army of Azerbaijan retaliated, no casualties were reported.
Bernard Fassier, the France Co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group, stated that the time is necessary for both sides to value the proposals submitted to the Azerbaijani and Armenian Foreign Ministries in December 2007.
"We explained the details of the proposals and listened to the first reactions from both sides," Fassier said during his visit to Baku from Yerevan. According to Fassier, the discussions in Yerevan and Khankandi were very constructive. "We are confident that there is a good possibility to continue our work," Fassier added.
Should Nagorno-Karabakh be involved into the negotiating process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Karabakh Liberation Organization (KLO) will hold a mass protest, the chair of the organization Akif Nag said to Trend on 18 January.
According to Nagi, the protest will be non-traditional, but he did not go into any details.
The French chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Bernard Fassier, said on 17 January in Yerevan that Baku and Yerevan are discussing whether to involve the Nagorno-Karabakh region into the negotiating process as an independent side.
On 18 January, the Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group Yuri Merzlakov said to journalists that involving of Nagorno-Karabakh in the negotiating process depends on Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan should not allow involving separatist Nagorno-Karabakh into the negotiations, Nagi said.
Baku is not considering drawing the region into the negotiations, the Spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry Khazar Ibrahim said to Trend on 18 January. "The statements by the co-chairs regarding the involvement of Nagorno-Karabakh into the negotiations again prove that Azerbaijan should reject the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group in the settling process," Nagi said. He said the KLO may demand to prohibit the OSCE Minsk Group's visits to Azerbaijan.