Lebanon on Verge of Civil War – Experts

Azerbaijan, Baku, 8 May / Trend corr E.Tariverdiyeva, R.Hafizoglu / The efforts of the Lebanese Shiite Party Hezbollah to seize the power in Lebanon may bring the country to a new civil confrontation. "Hezbollah is eager for the military revolution in Lebanon," member of the Lebanese Parliament, Wail Abu-Faur said.

The religious leader of the Lebanese Sunnite Muslims, mufti Muhammad Kabbani, accused the Shiite movement Hezbollah of attempts to take over the Country, RIA Novosti reported. "Hezbollah tries to gain control of Lebanon," he said in TV appeal and demanded to stop violence resulting from the strikes.

"Hezbollah Party intends to transform from a resistance group into ruling force which can take decisive measures at the level of Government," Abu-Faur reported to Trend by telephone from Beirut on 8 May.

The MP considers that the Iranian Government stays behind the recent confrontations in Beirut. " Iran uses all chances to establish pro-Shiite Islamic State in Lebanon. The probability of confrontation between the Shiites and Sunnites of Lebanon is small, but there is a large probability that the civil war in Lebanon is unavoidable," Abu Faur said.

The MP considers that if Hezbollah and Iran do not stop, the control will be fully lost in the region, and it will be a blow for a democratic future of Lebanon and neighbouring countries.

"Hezbollah can indeed take over power in Lebanon, but that will spark a civil war and none of the various factions, including most of the Shia, will stand for that. So while Hezbollah can militarily take over radio and tv stations, occupy squares and neighbourhoods, and declare that it is in power, that will seriously erode its extensive base of support and legitimacy among not only the Shia but also the Sunnis and Christians who supports its welfare activities," Dr. Mehran Kamrava, Director of the Centre for International and Regional Studies at the Doha-based School of Foreign Service in Qatar Georgetown University, said to Trend via e-mail on 8 May.

"I don't think we're moving toward a Sunni-Shia conflict, in Lebanon or anywhere else. Much of the noise about this conflict comes from the king of Jordan, who has his own serious problems, but there is little basis in reality for it. In fact, as the latest Arab Public Opinion Survey (2007) indicates, in an almost all Sunni country like Egypt, the most popular man is Hassan Nasrallah, followed by Ahmadinejad, both of whom are Shia, that is why we can't wait religion war in Lebanon.

Repeated efforts of Trend to get some comments from the Head of the Progressive Socialist Party of Lebanon, Walid Jumblat, who two months ago called on the government to begin war against Hezbollah, remained fruitless.

Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shiite organization supporting establishment of an Islamic State in Lebanon in accordance with model of Iran. The base of the ideology is Imam Khomeini's Shiite Islamic ideology- established by the leader of the Islamic revolution in Iran. The party uses financial and military support of Iran and Syria.

Hezbollah has been announced as a terrorist organization in six countries worldwide, including Australia, Great Britain, Canada, Israel and the USA.

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