Moscow not Willing to Settle Conflicts in Georgia: Experts

Azerbaijan, Baku, 11 July /corr. Trend E.Tariverdiyeva, R.Agayev / Russia is not interested in settlement of conflicts in Georgia and this country's entrance to NATO, and therefore, provokes Georgian- Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetia conflicts, experts consider. " Moscow appears to think that so long as Georgia is in conflict with its breakaway regions and Russia, Georgia will not be allowed into NATO.  So Moscow does not see itself as having an interest in resolving the Georgia crisis," American expert on Russia, Mark N. Katz, said.

The difference between the self-declared republics - South Ossetia and Abkhazia - and official Tbilisi over the last week acquired the character of the military confrontation. After tragic acts of terror in Galya and Tskhinvali, the unrecognized republics accused Tbilisi of the aggravating situation, and Tbilisi highlighted its non-participation and in its turn, accused Russia and self-declared regimes of the acts of terror.

The steps of Russia do not contribute to regulating conflict on the territory of Georgia, said the U.S Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during her visit to Georgia on Thursday, adding that the USA is ready to be actively included in the process of regulating the situation.

Katz considers that Russia, of course, is the principal cause of the Georgian crisis. "There would be no Abkhaz or South Ossetian secession without strong Russian support. Russia could solve the Georgian crisis by ceasing its support for secession," Katz, Professor of Government and Politics of George Mason University, told Trend via telephone on 11 July,

According to the expert, however, Russia is highly unlikely to do this.

According to Katz, more provocatively Russia behaves regarding Georgia, the more likely it is that the West will see Russia as a threat.  And if Georgia reacts moderately to Russian provocation and does not escalate matters, then the West is more likely to see it as worthy of support, the Expert said. Us and Russian interests, then, are highly likely to be in conflict over Georgia, he added.

The expert of Moscow Center of Carnegie, Aleksey Malashenko, also considers that Moscow wants to remain co-participant in this conflict. "Peacemakers are actually Russian troops on the territory of Georgia," Malashenko told Trend .

Russia contributes to the aggravation of Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-South-Ossetian conflicts, but if to imagine that Russia will withdraw its peacemakers, then this will not solve the conflict, but probably, can aggravate it, he said. Commenting on statements by the U.S. Secretary of State, Malashenko noted that the interests in the zone of conflict are sufficiently diverse, situation is critical, therefore it is senseless to give to advice each others. Each is guided by its national interests, and the interests of the USA and Russia are sufficiently clear.

In this case, the expert considers that proposal on replacement of Russian peacemakers by policemen is not the best proposal today: possibly, it should have been made only earlier or only later. Until now, for the politician it remains incomprehensible who is finally interested in the provocation of conflict, but who is not. According to him, official Moscow and Tbilisi, to more precisely say, Medvedev, Putin and Saakashvili, are not interested in war, but there are some groups, which provoke the aggravation of conflict - this the so-called "hawks". "They exist is both in Moscow and in Tbilisi, and by the way, in Abkhazia. Therefore, today initiative belongs exactly to them. The explosions, which were arranged in Abkhazia were not the intrigues of Tbilisi or Moscow, these are the intrigues of some forces, interested in the disruption of settlement," Malashenko said.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia, former parts of Georgia SSR, declared their independence after demise of USSR. Unsuccessful talks are being held following the armed conflict that deprived Tbilisi of the control over these territories. They have been striving for recognition of their independence while Georgia considers them to be its constituent part and offers them a large autonomy.

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