If Talks with Iran Not Yields Results, Obama will Adopt Tougher Measures: Expert

Azerbaijan, Baku, 19 July/ Trend , corr E. Tariverdiyeva, V. Zhavoronkova/ The candidate from Democrats of US Barack Obama will take serious steps during his presidency, only in case peaceful talks with Tehran do not yield results.

"Except for a greater willingness to engage diplomatically with the Iranian government, the position he is taking is essentially this: If carrots fail to work, he is all in favor of using sticks short of direct military intervention," Bert A. Rockman, professor of Purdue University of US said to Trend on 19 July.

Obama said this week that US is interested in preventing Iran from possessing nuclear arms and all means should be used to put pressure on Tehran," Reuters reported.

"No instrument of artificial administration should be missed. I will use all elements of the US force to put pressure on Iran Iran, begining from aggressive, principle and direct diplomacy, imposing stiffer sanctionsd without the preliminary terms," Obama said.

Te experts believe that the rhetoric of Obama should be considered part of election campaign. The US expert Mark N. Katz believes that these statements were made only for Americans. Obama would continue the Bush policy toward Iran, he said.

"Unlike Bush, Obama is willing to talk to Iran. What he is saying, though, is that if talks do not work, he would adopt tougher measures," Professor of Government and Politics of George Mason University Кац.

University said to Trend via e-mail.

According to expert, Obama is saying this mainly in the context of the American presidential campaign to deflect criticism from Republicans that his approach to Iran is too soft, and that he would do nothing if talks do not work.

Iran also is hopeful of Obama. The Iranian political expert Piruz Mujtahidzade believes that if Obama is elected President, the diplomatic discussions with Iran will take place. There is one more interesting moment: Iran has made changes to its previous policy and even weakened its position on nuclear issue.

"By holding discussions with West, Tehran send a message to US which shows that relations between Iran and West will normalize further," Mujtahidzade, chairman Yurosevic Research Fund of London and professor of Geopolitical University of Tehran said to Trend by telephone.

The US expert Peter Shane also believes that I believe this has been his consistent position. He wants to engage in peaceful diplomacy with Iran, offering incentives for the voluntary abandonment of its nuclear enrichment program, but holding out the prospects of harsher sanctions if Iran refuses to adjust its behavior to the norms of the international community. The observers say that the current Bush Administration does not support immediate military attack on Iran.

According to Rockman, there seems to be broad agreement about the use of aggressive diplomacy in the case of Iran. No one, except possibly the Israelis and a few currently discredited but still active members of the Bush administration (mainly VP Cheney and his staff), are advocating a military intervention at the present time.

According to the political expert, the American military is already stretched in a two front war. The military is not looking for new ventures. In fact, it wasn't looking for the venture in Iraq either.

According to Shane, It is interesting that, in recent days, the Bush Administration -- which previously refused to engage in direct diplomacy with Iran -- has started to do so. "This suggests that the public's positive response to Obama's call for diplomacy is actually having an effect on the Bush Administration, which is a good thing," he said.

According to Mujtahidzade, the senator fro Illinois has influenced changes in Bush's policy. The platform of Obama puts some pressure on the policy of US government toward Iran, he said.

"The US Administration said so far that it will not hold talks with official Tehran if Iran does not stop uranium enrichment program. However, Obama criticized this policy and said that it is important to hold talks with Iran," Mujtahidzade said.

According to experts, problem of Iran concerns not only US, but also Europe also takes measures to stop uranium enrichment program of Iran.

According to Rockman, one of the hidden but very deep concerns is whether any of the Iranian regime's non-state terrorist allies would have access to its nuclear materials.

"I think there is widespread concern, not just American concern, about Iran's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons and potential mid-range missiles. "Iran is actually a fairly modern society with a regime from the 12th century, and one that has shown a penchant for aggressive support of terrorist groups as well as the use of highly inflammatory and threatening language," expert said.

According to Rockman, the Europeans have mostly stopped shipments of goods that have military implications to Iran. The effort would be that if the carrots don't work, the vise will grow tighter. Whether that will work or not to slow down Iran's movement toward becoming a nuclear power is not clear," he said.

On the eve of presidential elections, the US administration adopted measures which the observers assessed as 'turning of 180 degrees' in the US policy toward Iran. Williams Berns, deputy assistant to the Secretary of State will take part in the international talks with Israel on 19 July and this is high level of direct contacts between two countries for the last three decades.

"I believe, however, that Obama would, except in dire circumstances, take military intervention off of the table. However, others may not -- especially Israel," Rockman said.

The correspondent can be contacted at - [email protected]

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