Dalgha Khatinoglu, Head of the Trend Persian Service.
There is scarcely a country, which concerns about weakening of hostile authorities. However, both the Arab States League and Israel are concerned about weakening of the Fatah in Palestine.
The key topic of the discussions by the Arab States League Foreign Ministers is the challenges between Fatah and Hamas in Palestine. The meeting is being held in Egypt.
The 'Jihad Islami' movement, which functions in the Gaza Strip, is not satisfied with Hamas, as well as increase in the number of actions staged by tutors and physicians, which drove the self-proclaimed 'authority' of Salam Fayyazintoseriouschallenges. On the other hand, both sides have recognized that the peace talks between Fatah and Israel would not have results until 2008. It will cause serious strike on Fatah's image in the country.
On 13 August, Mahmud Abbas rejected the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's proposal on peace. According to Israeli based Haaretz newspaper, Olmert voiced readiness to return 93% territories, which are located on the west of the Jordan River and Gaza Strip, to Palestine. These lands are under Israel's control. Olmert agreed to return the territories on the condition of inviolability of settlements, which were built by Israel. However, Fatah called Olmert's proposal 'unfounded' because he did not clarify Jerusalem's status. Palestine considers Jerusalem its capital. On the other hand, the agenda includes Olmert's resignation. Both candidates from the governing parties -Kadima- Tsipi Livni and Shaol Mofaz, oppose Olmert's indulgence towards Arabs. So, it is hard to believe that the peace between Israel and Palestine will take place. It may be concluded with the next weakening of Fatah's position and increase of criticism towards Hamas.
Palestine may face crisis and confrontation within the country.
Israeli militaries arrested most members of Hamas including Palestinian Speaker Azizal-Dweik, who are still kept in Israeli prison, as a result of the operations held in the Gaza Strip, after the Israeli serviceman Gilad Shalit was captured by partisans, which had relations with Hamas, in 2006. The confrontation between Fatah and Hamas in June, which had heavy casualties, ended with split of the Government. Hamas established its so-called state in the Gaza Strip. Abbas in his turn declared this country unofficial and suspended Hamas's functioning. Palestine will host the presidential elections in January 2009. However, Abbas stated that the elections would be held together with the parliamentary elections in 2010. Hamas stated that after 9 January 2009, i.e. it will not recognize Abbas's office. So, Abbas hesitates over the consent on Hamas's participation in the next presidential elections.
The meeting, which was held in Egypt, touched upon the issue to dislocate peacemakers from Arab countries on the borders controlled by Fatah and Hamas. Most likely, the proposal was made by Abbas and Hamas rejects it. Despite Israel was absolutely against dislocation of Arab peacemakers in the territory of Palestine so far, it had to agree with it. Israel released approximately 1,500 Palestinian captured with a purpose to strengthen Abbas' power.
The report by the Israeli Interior Security Agency.
The report by the Israeli Interior Security Agency (Shin Bet), issued in August, noted that Palestine would face crisis in 2009. Yuval Diskin, Shin Bet's Head, said that the collapse and split of the 15 years standing country is inevitable after the next presidential elections in Palestine (January 2009). On the other hand, unlikely the presidential elections will be held due to presence of dual power. While Abbas power's term will expire it must be temporarily given to Speaker. However, Speaker has been kept in arrest in Israel for two years. So, Israel does not want Abbas's weakening. If Hamas will come to power, allegedly Israel would have to sit down at the negotiation table with this radical organization.
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