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Russia, Turkey to Retain Leadership in Region as Democrats did not Highlight Their Position on Azerbaijan: Member of Russia’s Public Chamber

Politics Materials 5 November 2008 15:48 (UTC +04:00)
Russia, Turkey to Retain Leadership in Region as Democrats did not Highlight Their Position on Azerbaijan: Member of Russia’s Public Chamber

Maksim Shevchenko, member of Public Chamber of Russia and presenter of First Channel, especially for Trend .

During election campaign Barack Obama put very little stress on international policy. Unlike John McCain, he did not advance any global international ideas. The political situation in America has also changed. Only one party - Democrats will control the White House, Congress and Senate for the first time after a long term which means that any law can now pass through all instances without any obstacles. In fact, one-party system took a lead in America where Republicans are now opposition and their voice only is of advisory character.

As to the South Caucasus, given the fact that Americans view the situation in the Caucasus in the context of situation in the Near East and Asia Minor, one can predict the following: Barack Obama will actually pull out troops from Iraq as he promised and this is most likely to lead to the split of Iraq to three states - Sunnites, Shiite and Kurdish since Iraq can not control all three large enclaves. Let's imagine that large Kurdish state with a capital city in Mosul will appear in the region. I will have a great impact on the geo-political balance in the region of South Caucasus as a whole as it will evoke certain reaction of Turkey and Armenia. On its part, Azerbaijan will also react to it. Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that Saakashvili was a favorite of Senator McCain who demonstrated love, support and fatherly blessing for him. Will Democrats change their attitude towards Saakashvili? Will they refuse to render radical support to Tbilisi regime?

Karabakh related issues are not so significant for Obama at present and will not be so in years to come. If US forces are withdrawn from Iraq and there are high stakes for emerging of new national states in the region, the respective approaches of Americans to the settlement of Karabakh issue can be predicted. Americans will not quarrel with Armenians. California, with a large number of Armenians, voted for Obama. Democrats did not highlight their position towards Azerbaijan; therefore Russia and Turkey will remain leaders and countries more interested in the political settlement in the region. Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey will still retain leadership in the resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Opinions expressed in this article may be different of those held by Trend

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