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Mohammad Khatami has chance to become Iranian new president

Politics Materials 11 February 2009 21:01 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 11 / Trend , D.Ibrahimova, T.Jafarov /

Iranian ex-President Mohammad Khatami has chance to win the upcoming presidential elections thanks to his experience and shortcomings of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's governing.

On Feb. 9, Khatami officially confirmed that he would run for the presidential post. The presidential election in Iran will take place in June. The incumbent President Ahmadinejad has not officially confirmed participation in the election.

"The economic problems and Iran's international isolation are Ahmadinejad Administration's main shortcomings, which will provide benefits to those who would compete with him in the election," German expert for Iran Michael Bauer said to Trend .

Experts believe that Khatami's experience in the policy of Iran will help him to win the next presidential election.

Mohammad Khatami was elected president for two terms (1997-2005). In 1997, nearly 20 million voters voted for Khatami (71.43 percent) and in 2001 - about 16 million (57.14 percent). Under Iran's constitution, president can not be elected more than two consecutive terms.

Khatami is a charismatic leader and an authoritative person in the political arena of Iran, so he may have a chance to win the election, Bauer, Center for applied policy research in Germany, said to Trend over phone.

Voters prefer a more experienced candidate, who ruled the country for eight years rather than four, believes Marzui Ali, an expert on Iran's domestic issues, the chairman of the Association of Iranian Journalists.

During Khatami's ruling the freedom of citizens and press were expanded and inflation did not rise above nine percent. Khatami called for dialogue between the cultures of East and West.

The tension in the relations between Iran and the West that existed since 1979, when Iranian students attacked the U.S. Embassy, has been kept to a minimum. The development of Iran's nuclear program was suspended during his ruling, which is now the main stumbling block between the West and Iran, because Western countries fear that Tehran is creating nuclear weapons.

Since the Islamic revolution in Iran, which occurred in 1979, there is little promotion between the U.S. and Iran. Therefore, voters can support Khatami, who is more loyal to the West.

U.S. President Barack Obama said that he was ready to cooperate with Iran, although there have been no negotiations at a high level between the two countries over the past 30 years.

"Khatami's character and what he stands for as a reformist candidate landed very well at the current time and his candidature for the elections will be seen as a very positive sign and it is a step towards Iran re- engagement with not only the USA, but also with the wider international community," Christopher Pang, expert on Middle East, told Trend .

During his governance, Muhammad Khatami attempted to establish relations with Washington. However, the religious leader of Iran Ali Khamenei, who has strong influence on the policy of the country in accordance with the Constitution, acted against these negotiations.

Despite that during his governance, Khatami could not carry out his promises, which he gave, he has a good chance to win the elections if to take into consideration the present policy and achievements of President Ahmadinejad.

The deteriorating economic situation in Iran may hurt Ahmadinejad, and thus help Khatami, American expert on Middle East, Mark Katz, said.

The level of inflation in Iran rose to 28.4%, whereas during Khatami's governance, the figure did not exceed nine-percent level.

"Ahmadinejad has failed to deliver a number of economic platforms. When he was elected in 5 mainly his pledge to attack unemployment and now we see the complete reverse of all of his campaign projects in 2005," Pang, Head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Royal United Services Institute. 

According to the data provided by the Economic Statistics magazine, published by the Central Bank of Iran in August 2008, more than 14 million people in Iran live under poverty. The indicator from 2005 to 2006 increased from 18 to 19 percent. The number of poor people increases due to the yearly growth in the inflation rate.

Together with the economic problems in the country, Ahmadinejad's policy leads to the increasing isolation of Iran in the world community.

"Khatami's candidature will have much advantages for the inhabitants of Iran, who observed political and economic isolation of the country over the last four years and do not desire its further strengthening" said Pang.

The reason for the economic isolation of the country is the sanctions introduced by the UN Security Council, directed toward preventing Iran's nuclear program, on which Europe and West have doubts on peaceful character. Teheran denies the military character of its development and does not intend to stop the program.

However, despite all deficiencies, it is not worth discounting Ahmadinejad's support by the influential religious leader of Iran Ali Khamenei, who has influential authority in the policy.

Ali Khamenei, who became the religious leader of Iran in 1989, controls all basic levers of state power - courts, army, and also the media. He appoinmts the heads of court system, state radio and television.

In spite of the large number of Khatami's advantages, the French expert of the Iranian origin on Iran Houssein Lajevardi doubts that the former President has a chance to win the election.

Iran's population will not vote for Khatami because people were disappointed in him for eight years of his governing. Khatami collected 70 percent of votes when he was elected for the first time. Only half of supporters backed him in the second elections, Lajavardi, chairman of France-based Association of Iranian Researchers in France, told Trend over phone.

"Khatami failed to act effectively as the President and this fact can hamper him to win in the election, Katz, professor of policy in international relations department under George Mason University, told Trend over phone.

Khatami promised that the government would act in accordance with population's willing but failed to keep his promises. The nation was democratized only partially. In the end of governing Khatami said that Iran's President was "only executor of will of Iran's spiritual leader.

There were celebrations dedicated to the 30th Islamic Revolution on Tuesday, the next day after Khatami's nomination for Iran's President. People standing against Khatami shouted slogans "Death to Khatami. We do not want the U.S government," The Times reported.

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