Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 19 Trend E.Tariverdiyeva/ The improvement in the Armenian-Turkish relations is possible only through the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, taking into consideration territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, experts considers.
"Turkish officials have underscored the seriousness of the process of normalization of relations with Armenia, but Turkey has also been careful to keep Azerbaijani officials informed of its priorities as well as to sustain efforts aimed at solving the Karabakh conflict," Licinia Simao, expert on South Caucasus, said.
The position of Turkey and Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unchanged, the Ihlas news agency quoted Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as saying at a press conference on Feb. 18.
"We are continuing the process with Azerbaijan in the same direction," Erdogan said.
The former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan are officially in the situation of war because of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, populated by Armenians. Self-proclaimed republic is considered by the world community as part of Azerbaijan. Since the beginning of the Armenian- Azerbaijani conflict in 1988, nearly 35,000 people have been killed, 20 percent of the territory of Azerbaijan, in particular Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding regions, are still under the occupation of the armed forces of Armenia.
A ceasefire agreement was reached in 1994. Still Baku and Yerevan hold negotiations through international mediators, which have yielded no results. The ceasefire agreement is periodically broke on the line of contact of the armed forces of sides.
Turkey and Armenia attempt to normalize the relations, which were broken off already in 1993 due to Armenia's "genocide" campaign and forceful occupation of 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory.
Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited Yerevan on Sept. 6, 2008 after being invited by Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan to watch a football match between the two countries. Efforts have been made to normalize ties ever since.
The observers consider that the improvement in the Armenian-Turkish relations is possible only through the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, taking into consideration territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
Turkey has demands without which it is impossible to establish relations with Armenia and settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict basing on Azerbaijan's territorial integrity is one them, Turkish Expert to Caucasus Kamer Kasim said.
"If the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not settled in line with Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, Ankara will not establish relations with Armenia, because borders were closed due to Armenia's occupying the Azerbaijani territories," Usak International Strategic Research Centre Expert Kasim told Trend in a telephone conversation from Ankara.
Baku and Ankara have a clear agreement on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and Turkey will never establish relations with Armenia unilaterally if Yerevan does not follow the agreement. "Turkey will never establish relations with Armenia in prejudice of Azerbaijan, as Azerbaijan is a key figure to settle the conflict," Kasim said.
"The Turkish government stated that Turkey will not establish relations with Armenia without the Armenian troop's withdrawal from the Azerbaijani occupied lands," Azerbaijani Parliamentary Member Asim Mollazade told Trend .
"I have recently been in Ankara where officials of the Turkish governing party stated at the highest level that Turkey supports Azerbaijan as usual," Azerbaijan Democratic Reforms Party Chairman Mollazade said.
Baku should rely on the Turkish government's promise that Ankara is seeking to assist in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as usual, he said. "Serious breakthrough in the conflict settlement will not occur without the Armenian troop's withdrawal from the occupied territories," Mollazade said.
For Armenia the ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan carries a great deal of hardships and Yerevan would be happy to resolve the situation, Simao said.
"This is more so, as the current status quo in Karabakh is seen in Yerevan as equivalent to a de facto autonomy from Azerbaijan," University of Coimbra Fellow Simao wrote to Trend in an email.
The international community should take this context into account and make all efforts and preparations to assist in the implementation of a settlement agreement, Simao said.
Most of experts think if Turkey establishes diplomatic relations with Armenia, this will improve a situation with settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict while basing on Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.
Russian political scientist Kirill Tanaev said the improvement of the Armenia-Turkey ties might have an influence on the resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict positively, since expansion of confidence measures in the Caucasus region has an objective contribution to the resolution of the conflict.
"Turkey seeks to play a more active role, and this means that it would like to speak unless the arbitrator, then one of the mediators between Armenia and Azerbaijan," Rational Policy Fund director general Tanaev said to Trend .
If turkey has diplomatic relations with Armenia it can only improve the resolution of the conflict in Nagorno- Karabakh, Director of Inside Europe, an Armenian think-tank in Brussels Nicolas Tavitian said
"Right now Turkey has no means to help in resolution of this conflict, but if it talks to Armenia it will have means of persuading Armenia," Tavitian said.
Now Turkey has established actual relations with Armenia and has more abilities to influence the country. Once diplomatic relations are established and economic relations are established then Armenia will have interest in Turkey. You look to your partner- you listen to the people who listen to you.
Azerbaijani political scientist does not agree with this statement.
"Armenia's position is not based on its relations with the countries, as many are interested in solving this conflict, and while they have good relations with Armenia," Molladze said.
R. Agayev (Moscow), R.Hafizoglu and D.Ibrahimova constributed in the article.
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