Ulviya Sadikova, commentator of Trend Middle East Desk
Recent talks of Israeli Prime Minister with the U.S. President show that Israel will refuse from talks with the Palestinians rather than to sign a new agreement, and it seems that this time, the USA will not be able to help.
Benjamin Netanyahu's trip to Washington justified hopes of neither Arab nor Western mediators in the Middle East conflict. During the talks with Barack Obama, Netanyahu only used the periphrasis of the Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman that yet the Palestinians can count on broad autonomy, and the establishment of an independent state can not be the topic of discussions.
It is not clear on what Israel counted when Obama, with the words of support for the creation of a Palestinian state, past and upcoming visits to Muslim countries, proved that the United States is serious in dialogue with the Islamic world, unlike the previous administration of George W. Bush. Obama held a clear distinction between the fight against international terrorist organizations and relations with the Muslim countries, where the terrorists may exist.
But apparently Netanyahu hoped that the spirit of "Bush" policies still hovers in the White House, and the influence of the Jewish lobby will not allow weakening in the Israeli-American diplomacy. And miscalculated. Hopes that possibly Democrat Obama will agree to postpone the establishment of an independent Palestinian state for at least three years appeared unjustified. Netanyahu believes that so much time is necessary for the establishment of national security agencies in the Palestinian Autonomy and improvement of the economic situation in the region. It is quite understandable: the Primer Minister wants to complete his first term with some results in the conflict with the Arabs, considering that in Israel and the West, quick collapse is predicted for the coalition government of Netanyahu.
But in addition to establishing a Palestinian state, Obama requires to make East Jerusalem the capital of the Palestinians, which all Israeli policies refused. Despite the differing positions in the negotiations with the Arabs, the left and right politicians of Israel are united in the fight for the preservation of Jerusalem.
For the U.S. President the Palestinian problem is a headache, Arab and even Muslim world has become thread for which he snatched in advancing negotiations with the Muslim countries. The Head of the White House tries to involve in dialogue the anti-Western political parties of the Middle East such as Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, on which the security in the region depends, because this conflict is not only a clash of East and West, but also the struggle of Arab leaders for primacy in the region.
The last intervention of Israel in the Gaza Strip in December last year showed that the allies of the West in the region - Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan - have weakened before pro-Iranian camp in the Middle East. It is not a secret that Hamas only strengthened politically after the war in Gaza. That is why, in his upcoming visit to Egypt in June, Obama will seek a dialogue not only with pro-Western Muslims, but with the entire Islamic world, except terrorist groups.
Therefore, Israel, which has nothing to offer to move the peace process with the Arabs, is unlikely to shift all the problems to the United States. But Washington, which is entirely covered by the problem of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan and preservation of troops in Iraq after the withdrawal, has no time and money to help Israel in the Palestinian issue. The United States already helps Israel, establishing a dialogue with Syria, thereby mitigating pro-Iranian position of Damascus, and supporting the Palestinians, and thus, hinders the outbreak of violence in the region.
But now it is not too sweet for Netanyahu's government because the country is on the brink of internal political crisis. Elections were held, but according to a poll of local media, the population of the country is more and more dissatisfied with the radical position of Foreign Minister Lieberman and Netanyahu's inaction in the peace process. The government in Israel is coalition, with the participation of parties with quite different views. Israeli analysts do not exclude that the opposition of Tzipi Livni and Labourite Ehud Barak may add fuel to the fire for the removal of Netanyahu. This can be caused by the weakening of the US-Israeli partnership, and this is a blow to the economy and diplomacy in Israel.
Still the United States gives Israel the second chance to review its policy in the Middle East, since negotiations with nuclear Iran stay at stake. If Washington sees that the position of the government of Netanyahu disrupts Obama's plans in the Middle East, it is not excluded that as a bargaining tool with Israel, the U.S. will choose the political and economic support, without which Israel would lose the Palestinian and other occupied territory in counting hours.
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