Azerbaijan, Baku, August 27 / Trend E. Tariverdiyeva /
Placing anti-missile defense systems in Europe will be postponed for a certain amount of time. But there will be no U.S guarantees not to place them there, Russian military expert, Pavel Felgenhauer, said.
"There will be no formal agreements between Moscow and Washington, because there was a plan that anti-missile defense systems would be launched only when Iran has missiles that can reach Central and Western Europe, Felgenhauer told Trend over the phone from Moscow. There is no real threat from Iran, nor a need for anti-missile defense systems in Europe. But the USA will not give up the project.
The U.S. administration is likely to decline the deployment of anti-missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, the Polish "Gazeta Wyborcza" citing the President of the U.S public organization "Alliance for Anti-Missile Defense Systems", Riki Ellison, RIA Novosti reported.
Last week Polish Deputy Minister of National Defense, Stanislaw Komorowski, said that Poland expects that the USA will conclude plans concerning the deployment of anti-missile defense systems in Eastern Europe in September.
"The signals coming from the Pentagon are absolutely clear. The current U.S. leadership will look for other solutions for anti-missile defense systems and give up bases in Poland and the Czech Republic," Ellison told the newspaper.
Felgenhauer said that there have already been messages like this one. Washington will fail to refuse placing anti-missile defense systems in Europe, since the present administration may have to answer for its actions. Nobody would approve contracts formally connecting the Russians with future administration, expert said.
Felgenhauer said that Russia requires a principal treaty restricting anti-missile defense systems. But U.S. senators would never vote for it.
U.S. anti-missile defense systems will not be legally restricted as 2/3 of votes are necessary for any approval, he said.
"In an extreme case, a U.S Declaration that Washington has refrained from placing them will be adopted," he said.
The expert said that missile type is likely to be reconsidered in future. Short-range rockets will be offered. "However, the missile systems of STANDART 3, placed in Poland to intercept medium and long range missiles, will fail if similar ones appear in Iran," Felgenhauer said.
So everything depends on Iran's success or failure in testing its missiles and on the development of Iran's relations with the West and Washington," he said.
Felgenhauer said that there is talk on the joint use of U.S. and Russian anti-missile defense systems. The possibility to use the radar in Gabala was discussed during these talks.
"However, there will be no benefit for the USA, because it is not focused on Iran", Felgenhauer said. The expert said that using the radar in Gabala is irrational. Not all of Iran's territory is covered by it.
The Gabala radar station, located in the north-western part of Azerbaijan, was built in Soviet times as one of the most important elements in the USSR's anti-missile defense system. Later, when Azerbaijan gained independence and the radar station passed into its property, Russia continued to use the station amid Azerbaijan's hectic internal political life.
A ten-year agreement to lease the radar station was signed in 2002.
The issue of the Gabala radar station has frequently been the subject of internal debates, including in the Azerbaijani Parliament. In early 2006, Azerbaijan raised the question on doubling the rent for the radar station, from $7 million to $14.4 million per year.
During the G-8 summit in the summer 2007, Moscow offered the USA joint use of the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan, as well as a station to prevent rocket launches which is under construction in Armavir, in the south of Russia.
Stivachtis said that the USA is willing to spend money to modernize the Gabala radar station. There is also U.S willingness to cooperate with Russia. The main goal of this cooperation is to demonstrate that Russia is no threat for the West, he said.
The expert said that the Gabala radar station is directed to a technical base in Indian Ocean.
Felgenhauer said that the proposal to jointly use anti-missile defense systems is no more than talk on both sides, since Russian and U.S. anti-missile defense systems are technically incompatible and are based on different concepts. This proposal had been made before.
"The joint system is the so-called 'dual-key'. When it is necessary to respond to a military threat, both sides must simultaneously 'turn their keys'," Felgenhauer said.
It is difficult to negotiate if there is no current military threat. Realizing this, the U.S. Congress will never pay to use these bases.