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Trend News commentator: Is Kyrgyz revolution return under Kremlin's wing?

Politics Materials 12 April 2010 18:55 (UTC +04:00)
Tragic events of recent days in Kyrgyzstan gave occasion to think over the development of the country after apparently quick change of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's power. The main issue disturbing the international community now is the influence of which external player in Kyrgyzstan will be deciding feature after the change of leadership and electing a new president of Kyrgyzstan. There is no doubt that a strong partner will influence on Bishkek, because Kyrgyzstan is a weak state, which requires external support to achieve success.
Trend News commentator: Is Kyrgyz revolution return under Kremlin's wing?

Trend European Desk Commentator Elmira Tariverdiyeva

Tragic events of recent days in Kyrgyzstan gave occasion to think over the development of the country after apparently quick change of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's power. The main issue disturbing the international community now is the influence of which external player in Kyrgyzstan will be deciding feature after the change of leadership and electing a new president of Kyrgyzstan. There is no doubt that a strong partner will influence on Bishkek, because Kyrgyzstan is a weak state, which requires external support to achieve success.

It is important that the clashes in Kyrgyzstan, which caused many casualties, were not initiated by any third force. The people of the country is simply tired of Bakiyev's management style. The bloody end is the result of the prolonged conflict between society and authority. Almost all the resources of the country over the past five years have been monopolized by Bakiyev's family.

Bakiyev placed members of his family and friends for all the best and profitable positions. Corruption, the concentration of ownership in the hands of power elites, rampant bureaucracy, complete usurpation of Bakiyev's power clan were Bickford's fuse of the Kyrgyz popular revolt.

The authority fully refused from a constructive dialogue with people, banned rallies, closed all opposition media and arrested opposition leaders.

One should understand that the figure of Bakiyev was good enough for both Moscow and Washington, although the Kyrgyz leader played on two fronts. He negotiated with the United States to maintain a military base at Manas, which is one of the main arteries connecting Afghanistan and the U.S., and re-negotiated with Moscow about withdrawal of Americans from the same database for a fee in the form of interest-free loan from Moscow.

Despite this, Russia and the United States, China and the European Union and other Central Asian states want to maintain political stability in the country, prevent development of chaos allowing Islamic fundamentalists in the South to intensify.

But one can improve nothing. Bakiyev will not return to power. Now Moscow can take a chance and expand the field of its geo-strategic interests.

The Kremlin has already made the first precise steps in this direction. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin without delay recognized the new government in Kyrgyzstan immediately after the formation of an interim government.

Early this week, the leader of the Kyrgyz opposition and the first deputy chairman of the interim government of Kyrgyzstan Almazbek Atambayev flew to Moscow.

Atambayev said that Kyrgyzstan expects to receive from Russia more than $ 150 million of grant aid. He said that the agreement was reached during negotiations of the Kyrgyz interim government in Moscow.

"Our questions were taken with great understanding during the talks in Moscow. We were assured that Kyrgyzstan is a brotherly country for Russia, and Kyrgyzstan's problems are the Russia's problems. A delegation of the interim government headed by Vice Premier Temir Sariyev will leave," RIA Novosti quoted Atambayev.

Atambayev, who, incidentally, is the most likely candidate for the presidency said that the issues of dual citizenship with Kyrgyzstan and continuation of the Russian investment projects in Kyrgyzstan were discussed during the talks with senior Russian officials.

Orientation of the Kyrgyz opposition, one of the leaders of which will soon lead the country, is absolutely pro-Russian.

After twenty years of confusion, Russia has stated about its interest in former republics of the Soviet Union during the August events in Georgia in 2008.

Today Moscow is given the chance, which it probably will not miss. Now the Kremlin can win in rivalry with China and the U.S. for control of the strategically important energy resources and transit routes.

The U.S. administration, concerned about the military operation against the Taliban, now wants Kyrgyzstan just one thing - to save the Manas Base, through which much of the cargo for the coalition forces in Afghanistan is delivered, and the normal functioning of the second U.S. Ganci Air Base in Kyrgyzstan, through which transportation of personnel monthly increase by 10 percent.

And perhaps, in this matter, Moscow will make concessions to the U.S.  Former Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva, who leads the interim government, has made assurances that all conditions of the agreement on the Manas Base will be observed. The Kremlin is well aware that Kyrgyzstan is desperately needs money that it receives for the use of Manas.

It is obvious that Washington has no opportunity to enlist the Kyrgyz opposition's support, as given the sensitive situation with the Manas, the U.S. has recently preferred to ignore glaring violations of human rights by the Kyrgyz authorities and non-observance of democratic norms by them in order to avoid quarrels with Bakiyev.

Moscow is again ready for a great geopolitical game, and all that was necessary to the Kremlin, as it turned out, just wait for time to see the deplorable results of the three color revolutions in former USSR countries.

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