Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 28 /Trend, T.Konyayeva/
Gamal Mubarak will not be able to take power, said the president of the Institute for Middle East Studies
Yevgeny Satanovsky, adding that an attempt to give him the power of inheritance can already be assume failed.
"The army and security forces, headed by their leader, Mr Suleiman, in principle, can grab the power, but it is unknown for how long," Yevgeny Satanovsky told Trend by telephone from Moscow.
In the end there will again appear radical Islamists, a terrorist wing that ultimately, as always happens in the Arab world, with any movement for democracy, tolerance, pluralism, parliamentary system, will lead to political Islam either a milder form, as in Turkey, with political parliamentary methods, or in a hard form, as in Iran in 1975, he said.
Demonstrators in Egypt have been calling for democracy, the ouster of President Hosny Mubarak, in power for 30 years, and more employment opportunities.
Egypt's protesters hope to emulate the Tunisian uprising that toppled president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali on January 14, after nearly 23 years in power.
"Tensions in Egypt are very high. The situation in Egypt with the ecology, demography, economy is catastrophic, worse than the situation in Tunisia. Moreover, the social lifts in Egypt were also annulled, as in Tunisia," said Satanovsky.
Tunisians are much more educated, in Tunisia there is a much higher standard of living, there is a middle class that knows what has been lacking in Egypt for long. Paradoxically, it made matters worse for the rulers of Tunisia, because educated population, accustomed to high standards of living, sharply reacts to the gerontocracy, the injustice, lack of opportunities.
But the people fighting for survival, for a piece of bread have no time, energy and mood to deal with such revolutions, it needs to raise them to this revolution. It should be noted that the regime in Egypt has done a lot for this, particularly raised the prices of essential commodities. In case of Tunisia, the situation has led to very sad consequences, in case of Egypt, it will lead to even more sad consequences, he said.
"Without the U.S. food aid, Egypt would have already died of hunger. And when there will not be water in Egypt, and it will not be after Sudan will begin to build weirs and block the Nile, which will happen in the next 3-5 years, today's excitement will seem childish prattle compared with what will happen then," he added.