Egyptian scenario not be repeated in Iran

Egyptian scenario not be repeated in Iran

Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 16 /Trend Т.Кonyayeva/

Parallels between events in Egyptand Iran are not to be drawn because unlike Egypt, where power was handed over to the army, the transfer of power to the military forces in Iran is not acceptable, experts said.

"I don't think that any parallel can be drawn between situations in Iran and Egypt, Head of the Iranian-American Council Hooshang Amirahmadi told Trand by telephone. - For one thing, Iran is a revolutionary country, it has gone through the revolution 30 years ago, the government is revolutionary anyway, while in Egypt you have a man who was a president for 30 years an he came from military he worked with the military and he left the post and gave that position to the military."

A rally in support of the peoples of Egypt and Tunisia was launched in Tehran on Monday 14 February. Rallies also spread to cities Kirmanshah, Isfahan and Shiraz. The Iranian opposition's official website Kaleme.com reported that more than thousands demonstrators went on the streets in the cities of Shiraz and Isfahan. The police tried to disperse the protesters in Azadi and Ingilab squares in Tehran, using tear gas.

The clashes of the protesters killed one person, several others were injured, the state of one of the wounded is hard. Nine policemen were also wounded, said the deputy commander of the Iranian police Ahmadraza Radan.

Before, large-scale anti-governmental protests took place in Egypt. Thousands of people in different cities across the country took to the streets, demanding President Hosni Mubarak's resignation and the dissolution of parliament. The unrests in the country have killed at least 300 people and have injured over 4,000. One million people marched at the Tahrir Square in Cairo and demanded the resignation of President Mubarak. As a result, on Feb. 11, Mubarak announced his resignation, and transferred the country's leadership to the Supreme Military Council.

According to Amirahmadi, Egypt of today is very similar to Iran of 30 years ago when Iranians went to the streets, overthrew a dictatorial Shah and established a regime.

"Now, the Egyptian people went to the street, threw down a dictator but they haven't established anything yet except that the military has taken over, he told. - What happens in Egypt, we still need to see as I don't think that Egyptian situation is over yet".

The only parallel obvious in both places is that the people are asking for freedom, for democracy, for human rights, Amirahmadi believes.

"But in terms of the government and international relations there is no parallel between the Islamic Republic and the government of Mubarak. Mubarak was a friend of the United States, Egypt had and does have the diplomatic relations with the U.S. while Islamic Republic of Iran is their enemy, they don't have relations, and there are the U.S. sanctions," the expert told.

Furthermore, one shouldn't forget that the Islamic Republic is a theocratic state, while there is the secular government in Egypt, Amirahmadi believes.

According to him, an Egyptian-style outcome for Iran - the overthrow of the government and the transfer of power to the militants - is unacceptable, as military forces are a part of the regime in Iran.

"In Iran, the people will not accept the transfer of power to, for example, Revolutionary Guards, Amirahmadi told. - In the Iranian situation should be a complete total revolution again, that is in the sense of throwing this regime and changing a doctrine".

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is an Iranian elite unit, created in 1979 from the paramilitary detachments of Islamic Revolutionary Committees, the supporters of Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini. Many members from the Corps are represented in the government, and their number increases.

IRGC is the real power in society, which is represented not only in administration, but also in financial and commercial sectors. Guard Corps has extensive economic interests in the defense materials, construction, oil and nuclear industry.

"Idefinitely think that we should not expect the same scenario in Iran in the near future," Amirahmadi told.

The expert believes that clashes in Iran will continue for some time if the sides can not come to a compromise.

"I hope they will, as the only outcome will be that continuation of this mess or the complete collapse of the system, and it will be a very civil war, he told. - But I don't think there can be a clean break - the way Egyptians had".

According to American expert Ted Gallen Carpenter, Iran's clerical government has both the ability and the will to suppress the demonstrations with greater brutality than Mubarak did.

"The failure of the green movement's rebellion in 2009 does not bode well for any new confrontation," Carpenter, Vice President of the Cato Institute's Defense and Foreign Policy Studies Department, told Trend via e-mail.

In 2009, the powerful opposition unrest broke out in Tehran after the announcement of the results of the presidential election held on June 12. The election was won by the current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. One of the losing candidates - reformer accused authorities of rigging the voting results and called upon people to hold protests.

According to official figures, the clashes killed 20 people, but unofficial - 150. About 1,032 demonstrators were arrested, most of whom were subsequently released.

The power of the mullahs is slipping, but the odds are still against them being ousted from power at this point, Carpenter believes.

"Also, the Revolutionary Guard still seems loyal to the regime, he told. - The defection of the Egyptian military was the factor that ultimately doomed Mubarak. For the demonstrations in Iran to succeed, we would need to see at least a split in the Guard".

R.Darakhshan contributed to the article.

Subscribe to Trend in Google News! Subscribe
Armenian PM calls Russia’s proposals on border delimitation with Azerbaijan acceptable
Armenian PM calls Russia’s proposals on border delimitation with Azerbaijan acceptable
France stands for launching demarcation, delimitation of Armenia-Azerbaijan borders
France stands for launching demarcation, delimitation of Armenia-Azerbaijan borders
Russian peacekeepers - guarantors of peace in Karabakh - President Putin
Russian peacekeepers - guarantors of peace in Karabakh - President Putin
Loading Bars
Latest
Alliance Logistics talks potential of Zangazur corridor in increasing goods transit via Azerbaijan
Uzbek Statistics Committee reveals amount of construction work done for 10M2021
Volume of gas transportation to Turkey via TANAP disclosed
Several Azerbaijani organizations address citizens on omicron coronavirus variant
It is important to cooperate with such partners as Azerbaijan - Head of EU Delegation
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for November 30
Kazakhstan’s oil-producing company to buy batteries via tender
Azerbaijan unveils numbers of mine incidents due to illegal entry into liberated lands
Turkish MoD expresses condolences to Azerbaijan on military helicopter crash victims
Russia, Italy discuss situation in South Caucasus
Georgian Government to co-op with private sector – Business Association
UK health chief says no indication of Omicron wave so far
SOCAR Turkey forecasts growth in its total revenues for 2021
Webinar conference held for youth from Central Asia (PHOTO)
Export prices of Georgian apples increase
Azerbaijani State Customs Committee comments on alleged reduction of $300 limit for orders from abroad
Kazakhstan sees increase in pension savings
Volume of loans issued by private banks of Uzbekistan increases over year
Iran shares import data
Money transfers via Kazakhstan National Bank's payment systems down
Iran increases sale of state assets
Nepal unveils first shock table facility built with Indian aid
Non-OPEC crude oil supply to continue upward trend by 2023
Iran eyes manufacturing goods in Syria, exporting final products to third countries
Azerbaijan to launch social package in 2022 – minister
UAE's ADNOC to supply full crude volumes to Asia buyers in Feb
Azerbaijani president signs order to erect monument to famous poet in Baku
President Ilham Aliyev receives Pakistani Defense Production Minister
Azerbaijan repairs Shaki ferry ship at Zigh Ship Repair and Construction Yard
Azerbaijan reveals electricity generated by power plants in October 2021
Kazakhstan's banks increase lending over 10M2021
Azerbaijan to develop single mobile app for various types of insurance – Central Bank
AZAL discloses reason for Baku-Nakhchivan flight delay
Georgia’s potato exports to Central Asia up
Russia records 32,648 new daily coronavirus cases, lowest number since Oct 15
Uzbekistan shares data on loan portfolio of its banks in 10M2021
Iran eyes increase in value of exports – IRICA
Georgia’s hazelnut exports continue to increase
Kazakhstan’s Samruk-Kazyna opens tender on car renting services
Azerbaijan’s Central Bank eyes introducing innovation in insurance sector
Georgia’s GDP to reach European level – minister
German companies sign contracts with Azerbaijan in railway construction
Kazakhstan reports increase in placed deposits value
Petkim's revenues reached record high level this year - SOCAR Turkey CEO
Gas consumption in Iran continues to grow
Azerbaijan produces over 20,000 PCR tests for COVID-19
Georgia reveals sectors affected by real GDP growth
SOCAR Turkey discloses its investments in Turkey (PHOTO)
Dynamics of European oil demand in 2021-23
Iran boosts exports via customs of Bushehr Province
Chinese FM makes statement on meeting of leaders of Azerbaijan, Russia, Armenia in Sochi
Europe to see increase in jet fuel demand – JP Morgan
Azerbaijan's air defense units carry out combat firing exercises (VIDEO)
Top Russian, Mongolian defense officials discuss cooperation
Azerbaijani currency rates for November 30
"International Youth Festival of Modern Muslim Culture" ended in Kazan (PHOTO)
French inflation hits 13-year high in November
World oil demand to rise in 2022
German companies express interest in investing in Azerbaijan's Alat Free Economic Zone
Kazakhstan’s oil construction company opens tender for electrical equipment
Azerbaijan sees increase volume of loans issued for construction sector
Military helicopter crashes in Azerbaijan
Kazakh energy minister talk sale of hydroelectric power plants to UAE
Iran wants lifting of all sanctions - AEOI
State Agency on Vocational Education and Azerconnect sign Memorandum of Understanding
Volume of Azerbaijani gas exports to Turkey disclosed
Japan confirms first case of Omicron variant of coronavirus
International Court of Justice to deliver its order on Azerbaijan's case against Armenia
Kazakhstan’s manufacturing industry maintains stable growth – ministry
Georgian stock market eyes additional investments
Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas, Russia’s Tatneft establish JV for butadiene rubbers production
Azerbaijan, Iran implementing important projects - ambassador
Uzbekneftegaz obtains new industrial gas flow from Shimoliy Dengizkul field
Iran records increase in exports from Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari Province
Azerbaijan discloses volume of contaminated potatoes returned to Georgia
Vietnam to localize production of Russian Sputnik V vaccine
Kazakhstan's PM talks industrial development
Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Iran gas swap deal: chance to strengthen energy co-op
Uzbek BMB Group to organize export of saffron to Spain
India steps ups COVID-19 testing for international flyers
IIT-Guwahati develops coating for cloth masks for better COVID protection
India-Singapore flights commence under vaccinated travel lane
Number of flights via Iran’s Tabriz International Airport up
Georgia releases COVID-19 data for November 30
Vice admiral R Hari Kumar to take over as new chief of Naval staff today
JP Morgan expects Azerbaijan’s oil output to fall in 2023
CEO of European Azerbaijan School explains goals of hosting first IB conference (PHOTO/VIDEO)
Azerbaijan shows footage from Kalbajar's liberated Gilinjli village (VIDEO)
Azerbaijani oil prices increase
Azerbaijan sees growth in real estate registration rate for 10M2021 (Exclusive)
Iranian currency rates for November 30
Azerbaijan approves procedure for providing COVID-19 certificate
Uzbekistan shares updated COVID-19 data
Georgia shares data on TOP-5 potato export destinations for 10M2021
Kazakhstan’s Kazinform joins Turkic World media platform (PHOTO)
JP Morgan reveals forecasts for Azerbaijan’s 2021 oil output
Oil gains on bets OPEC+ will pause output hike
Azerbaijan approves amendments to law on vocational education
Azerbaijan may give incentives to support taxpayers offering local transport and forwarding services
Pakistan, Iran discuss establishment of barter system
All news