Egyptian scenario not be repeated in Iran
Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 16 /Trend Т.Кonyayeva/
Parallels between events in Egyptand Iran are not to be drawn because unlike Egypt, where power was handed over to the army, the transfer of power to the military forces in Iran is not acceptable, experts said.
"I don't think that any parallel can be drawn between situations in Iran and Egypt, Head of the Iranian-American Council Hooshang Amirahmadi told Trand by telephone. - For one thing, Iran is a revolutionary country, it has gone through the revolution 30 years ago, the government is revolutionary anyway, while in Egypt you have a man who was a president for 30 years an he came from military he worked with the military and he left the post and gave that position to the military."
A rally in support of the peoples of Egypt and Tunisia was launched in Tehran on Monday 14 February. Rallies also spread to cities Kirmanshah, Isfahan and Shiraz. The Iranian opposition's official website Kaleme.com reported that more than thousands demonstrators went on the streets in the cities of Shiraz and Isfahan. The police tried to disperse the protesters in Azadi and Ingilab squares in Tehran, using tear gas.
The clashes of the protesters killed one person, several others were injured, the state of one of the wounded is hard. Nine policemen were also wounded, said the deputy commander of the Iranian police Ahmadraza Radan.
Before, large-scale anti-governmental protests took place in Egypt. Thousands of people in different cities across the country took to the streets, demanding President Hosni Mubarak's resignation and the dissolution of parliament. The unrests in the country have killed at least 300 people and have injured over 4,000. One million people marched at the Tahrir Square in Cairo and demanded the resignation of President Mubarak. As a result, on Feb. 11, Mubarak announced his resignation, and transferred the country's leadership to the Supreme Military Council.
According to Amirahmadi, Egypt of today is very similar to Iran of 30 years ago when Iranians went to the streets, overthrew a dictatorial Shah and established a regime.
"Now, the Egyptian people went to the street, threw down a dictator but they haven't established anything yet except that the military has taken over, he told. - What happens in Egypt, we still need to see as I don't think that Egyptian situation is over yet".
The only parallel obvious in both places is that the people are asking for freedom, for democracy, for human rights, Amirahmadi believes.
"But in terms of the government and international relations there is no parallel between the Islamic Republic and the government of Mubarak. Mubarak was a friend of the United States, Egypt had and does have the diplomatic relations with the U.S. while Islamic Republic of Iran is their enemy, they don't have relations, and there are the U.S. sanctions," the expert told.
Furthermore, one shouldn't forget that the Islamic Republic is a theocratic state, while there is the secular government in Egypt, Amirahmadi believes.
According to him, an Egyptian-style outcome for Iran - the overthrow of the government and the transfer of power to the militants - is unacceptable, as military forces are a part of the regime in Iran.
"In Iran, the people will not accept the transfer of power to, for example, Revolutionary Guards, Amirahmadi told. - In the Iranian situation should be a complete total revolution again, that is in the sense of throwing this regime and changing a doctrine".
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is an Iranian elite unit, created in 1979 from the paramilitary detachments of Islamic Revolutionary Committees, the supporters of Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini. Many members from the Corps are represented in the government, and their number increases.
IRGC is the real power in society, which is represented not only in administration, but also in financial and commercial sectors. Guard Corps has extensive economic interests in the defense materials, construction, oil and nuclear industry.
"Idefinitely think that we should not expect the same scenario in Iran in the near future," Amirahmadi told.
The expert believes that clashes in Iran will continue for some time if the sides can not come to a compromise.
"I hope they will, as the only outcome will be that continuation of this mess or the complete collapse of the system, and it will be a very civil war, he told. - But I don't think there can be a clean break - the way Egyptians had".
According to American expert Ted Gallen Carpenter, Iran's clerical government has both the ability and the will to suppress the demonstrations with greater brutality than Mubarak did.
"The failure of the green movement's rebellion in 2009 does not bode well for any new confrontation," Carpenter, Vice President of the Cato Institute's Defense and Foreign Policy Studies Department, told Trend via e-mail.
In 2009, the powerful opposition unrest broke out in Tehran after the announcement of the results of the presidential election held on June 12. The election was won by the current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. One of the losing candidates - reformer accused authorities of rigging the voting results and called upon people to hold protests.
According to official figures, the clashes killed 20 people, but unofficial - 150. About 1,032 demonstrators were arrested, most of whom were subsequently released.
The power of the mullahs is slipping, but the odds are still against them being ousted from power at this point, Carpenter believes.
"Also, the Revolutionary Guard still seems loyal to the regime, he told. - The defection of the Egyptian military was the factor that ultimately doomed Mubarak. For the demonstrations in Iran to succeed, we would need to see at least a split in the Guard".
R.Darakhshan contributed to the article.