Trend Arabic News Service Head Rufiz Hafizoglu
Despite Baghdad officials' statements about the end of the war, the political tension observed in the country gives grounds to say that Iraq is on the threshold of new changes and the country faces fragmentation.
It is not an exception that the events occurring in Iraq will have an impact on neighboring countries, including Turkey.
Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi's removal from the political arena, the absence of any alternative to Nouri al-Maliki's government show that Baghdad's future policy will fully depend on Iran. Tariq al-Hashemi is considered Turkey's closest political ally.
A warrant for Tariq al-Hashemi's arrest at first sight has no special essence, but there are some very important moments that can be overlooked. For example the fact that Hashemi is in the territory of Kurdish administration, northern Iraq, he has not appeared before the court and the administration's statements that they will not hand over Hashemi.
As a response to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's requirement to return vice-president, the country's president Jalal Talabani said that Hashemi is my guest and he will appear before the court in Iraq at the appropriate time.
In fact, along with the fact that Hashemi's removal from the political arena serves the interests of Iran and Maliki's government, at the same time it does not contradict the interests of the Kurdish administration.
That's why, this is not a coincidence that an outspoken opponent of establishing a state of Kurdistan Hashemi took refuge in the Kurdish administration.
It is not a secret that Ankara aspires to become a real power in the region. It knows well that this way, even partially, goes through Iraq. On the other hand, Ankara could not overlook the lack of a serious government that will be able to conduct the independent policy after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime, the growing Iranian influence in Baghdad and the events in Iraq. That is why, Turkey must by all means destroy the terrorist organization PKK, which creates a serious headache in the region, and from time to time is used for the political interests of foreign powers. Along with this, Turkey must settle the Kurdish problem in a short time.
Despite the mechanism created between Turkey, the U.S and the Kurdish administration against the PKK organization, this has not showed its effect yet. In his statement to the Turkish media, Chief of the Turkish General Staff Necdet Ozel said that the Kurdish administration does not support this.
While expressing his attitude on the issue of the joint organization of air strikes by Ankara and Tehran against PKK, Ozel said that there is no such agreement.
Ankara indirectly accepts the Kurdish administration's irreplaceable role in dealing with the PKK problem.
Against a background of the developments Turkey continues to take serious steps to eliminate the PKK and address the Kurdish problem. In another statement to the media Turkish Armed Forces General Staff Chief Necdet Ozel said Turkey intends fully eliminate the PKK.
With regard to resolving the Kurdish problem in Turkey, preparation of a new constitution along with the addressing other problems can be regarded as a step aimed at resolving the Kurdish problem.
But the PPK does not unequivocally welcome Turkey's steps aimed at addressing the Kurdish problem.
Although, the field commander Serbaz Peri in an interview with Al-Jazeera TV channel said the new constitution to be adopted in Turkey is aimed at addressing the Kurdish problem, she also said Erdogan's government plays a political game.
Carefully observing the developments one can suppose existence of an agreement between Ankara and the Kurdish administration in northern Iraq to establish an independent state of Kurdistan.
The most interesting moment was a statement made by deputy from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Cuma Icten about the state of Kurdistan.
"We support Iraq's territorial integrity. If blood continues to spill in Iraq, Ankara should not be against the establishment of this state, on the contrary, should support it," he said.
It would be interesting to know if the establishment of independent state of Kurdistan on the border of Turkey serves to Ankara's interests?
At a glance it may seem that it does not, but in fact, Turkey will be able to use this trump to the sufficient extent.
Thus, by establishing independent state in northern Iraq it is supposed to prevent the desire of the Kurds residing in Turkey, who are inclined to separatism, to create an independent state in Turkey. Because Ankara, based the principle "every nation can decide its own destiny", will not allow creating the second Kurdish state in Turkey.
All the events give reason to believe that Ankara will take serious steps towards the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq to prevent Iran's growing influence in the region and protect the integrity of the Turkish state.