Baku, Azerbaijan, June 11
By Jani Babayeva - Trend:
A very complicated situation has been formed in Armenia as to date [close to the parliamentary election in the country to be held on June 20], Doctor of Historical Sciences, professor of the Department of International Relations in the Post-Soviet Space of St. Petersburg State University Niyazi Niyazov told Trend on June 11.
According to Niyazov, the fighting parties standing for Armenia’s Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and former President Robert Kocharyan have actually declared war on each other.
"This war is being mainly waged in social networks rather than the squares and streets of Yerevan and other cities of Armenia. Moreover, it’s obvious and noticeable that this is actually a life-and-death war," he said.
Presently no one can predict what the real situation will be in Armenia after the election, but many observers, including Armenian experts, agree that a serious political confrontation after the election is inevitable, the professor noted.
"The election itself will most likely be held more or less honestly. At the same time, its result, no matter how fair, will be challenged either by supporters of either Pashinyan or Kocharyan. All of them will claim that it was their political power that won the victory. Therefore, most likely, a dramatic situation in Armenia is inevitable," Niyazov further said.
He also noted that people in Armenia understand that if Kocharyan comes to power, they will have to live in the same conditions in which they actually lived since the end of the first Karabakh war [against Azerbaijan in 1991-1994], and this will lead to their life’s worsening instead of improving in the near future.
Besides, according to the professor, for its development, Armenia has to recognize the existing realities, normalize relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Iran.
"Armenia itself needs to achieve unblocking of all communications, which were mentioned in the trilateral statement [signed between Azerbaijani, Russian presidents and the acting prime minister on November 10, 2020, after the second Karabakh war], to open all transport corridors, including the Zangazur one [which is expected to pass through the Megri district of Armenia]. Otherwise, Armenia will never get out of the economic and geo-economic impasse," concluded Niyazov.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations.
Following over a month of military action to liberate its territories from Armenian occupation from late Sept. to early Nov. 2020, Azerbaijan has pushed Armenia to sign the surrender document. A joint statement on the matter was made by the Azerbaijani president, Armenia's PM, and the president of Russia.
A complete ceasefire and a cessation of all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict were introduced on Nov. 10, 2020.