BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 9. In today's global geopolitical landscape, the South Caucasus remains a focal point of interest for extra-regional actors. However, heightened external attention doesn't consistently lead to mutual efforts for compromise or cooperation among countries; it can occasionally trigger destabilization instead. Certain countries, like France, attempt to carve out spheres of influence within the region to pursue specific objectives.
Several factors contribute to the increased interest of non-regional players in the South Caucasus. Primarily, Emmanuel Macron's active foreign policy engagement in the region is notable, partly because Moscow diverted attention from the South Caucasus temporarily amid the conflict in Ukraine. This created opportunities for geopolitical maneuvers by external players. Consequently, France has pursued a broad spectrum of actions, such as bolstering military and political support for Armenia.
France intends to disrupt the peace process by impeding regional cooperation, aiming to leverage Armenia for logistical purposes. Conversely, Iran and Russia perceive France's actions as attempts to destabilize the region. Consequently, one of Iran's primary concerns is the proximity of a NATO member to its northern borders, which it has officially labeled as a violation of its 'red line'.
The growth of anti-Russian tendencies within the Armenian leadership was provoked by several factors, including the suspension of Armenia's involvement in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), limitations on the acceptance of Mir cards in the country's banks, and the decision to discontinue the service of Russian border guards at Zvartnots airport. These actions signal a significant shift in the country's foreign policy towards favoring the EU and pose a geopolitical challenge for Russia in the South Caucasus. Additionally, such external pressures may impede Armenia's engagement in the North-South transportation project and obstruct the establishment of potential corridors between countries, presenting a shared geo-economic risk for Iran and Russia.
Despite the conducive environment for signing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, external forces are deploying "observer missions" along the border of the two countries. This fuels a resurgence of revanchist sentiments in Armenia and obstructs the normalization of bilateral relations. The mandate of the EU civilian mission in Armenia emphasizes its role in maintaining regional peace. However, the extensive activities of this mission along the hypothetical Azerbaijani-Armenian border, coupled with the expansion of its personnel to 209, raise questions. In January of this year, the number of EUMA patrols in Armenia's border regions with Azerbaijan reached 1500. On March 20, the Armenian Parliament ratified an agreement with the European Union on the status of the EU civilian observation mission along the conditional border with Azerbaijan. This indicates the potential for further extension of EUMA's mandate and the gradual expansion of its composition.
The day before, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated in an interview with the Izvestia news portal: "Currently, military personnel from Norway, Canada, and the US continue to be deployed there, effectively transforming the EU mission into a North Atlantic Alliance mission."
The involvement of third countries in the region is not a new trend but rather a growing phenomenon. For instance, there's a discussion about forming an alliance between Armenia, Greece, France, and India under France's patronage. This military collaboration was proposed during Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias' visit to Armenia. While Greece aims to counterbalance Türkiye's influence in the region, India has multiple objectives, primarily economic. India views the South Caucasus as a potential alternative route to Europe, bypassing the Suez Canal through the Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Black Sea route, although Azerbaijan offers more favorable conditions for this project. India's foreign policy decision might also be influenced by its relationship with Pakistan, taking the stance that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." By providing military support to Armenia, India is making a political statement in response to Azerbaijan's close ties with Pakistan.
India stands out as a primary arms supplier to Armenia. Estimates suggest that the total value of contracts for arms and military equipment amounts to approximately $2 billion, covering a diverse range of items.
The provision of arms by India to Armenia heightens the risk of a fresh escalation.
Hence, the genuine mosaic of the Caucasus comprises nations with divergent foreign policy trajectories, rendering the regional geopolitical landscape intricate. Amidst such complexities, the involvement of external actors will exacerbate tensions and jeopardize peace. France seeks to assert itself as a guarantor of Armenia's security in the South Caucasus; however, this approach has proven ineffective. It is unrealistic to adopt a "Napoleonic" stance everywhere in the contemporary world order. France and other NATO members endeavor to foster a zone of instability. Armenia, by inviting Western observers and bolstering its military capabilities, aims to balance Azerbaijan's newfound status following the Second Karabakh War in late 2020.
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