On December 1, the European Union entered a new political era with the inauguration of its retooled European Commission (EC). The event capped months of political wrangling, backroom negotiations, and institutional horse-trading, paving the way for a leadership team charged with tackling a laundry list of challenges set to shape Europe’s trajectory for the next five years.
The lineup, approved by the European Parliament on November 27, reflects the shifting sands of European politics. With 370 votes for and 282 against, the Ursula von der Leyen-led Commission faces high-stakes mandates in foreign policy, climate strategy, defense, and digital transformation. The appointments have already triggered heated debates across Brussels’ corridors of power, signaling that this will be a term defined as much by its ambitions as by its inevitable clashes.
Key Power Moves: Kallas and Fitto Take Center Stage
One of the standout picks is Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian Prime Minister, now the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Known for her hawkish stance on Russia and staunch advocacy for Ukraine, Kallas represents the Union’s doubling down on pressure against Moscow while strengthening its alignment with Washington and NATO.
Kallas’ To-Do List:
- Fortify the EU’s sanctions regime against Russia.
- Deepen partnerships with NATO and G7 allies.
- Amplify support for Ukraine in its battle against Russian aggression.
While her appointment thrills Atlanticists, skeptics worry that her hardline rhetoric could alienate neutral players and complicate relationships with the Global South.
Meanwhile, Raffaele Fitto, a far-right heavyweight from Italy, has taken the helm as Vice-President of the Commission, marking an unprecedented ascension of a hard-right figure to such a senior position. Fitto’s portfolio includes overseeing multi-billion-euro regional development budgets—a move critics argue could funnel resources to conservative strongholds at the expense of the EU’s climate goals.
The Climate Conundrum: Ambition Meets Reality
The climate agenda gets a high-profile steward in Teresa Ribera, Spain’s former Minister for Environmental Transition, now Commissioner for Climate and Competition. Ribera’s primary task will be accelerating the EU’s flagship Fit for 55 program, which aims to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030.
Ribera’s Focus Areas:
- Decarbonizing Europe’s industries and transportation systems.
- Scaling up renewable energy infrastructure.
- Financially supporting nations dependent on hydrocarbons.
Despite her credentials, Ribera’s record has detractors. Spain’s catastrophic floods during her tenure exposed vulnerabilities in disaster preparedness, raising doubts about her ability to lead the EU’s climate push under pressure.
Security First: Kubilius and the New Defense Portfolio
For the first time in EU history, defense gets a dedicated portfolio, with Andrius Kubilius, Lithuania’s former Prime Minister, taking charge. His appointment signals Brussels’ commitment to bolstering its strategic autonomy amid growing geopolitical threats, from Moscow to Beijing.
Kubilius’ Playbook:
Threat Analysis: Tackle state and non-state risks, from cyberattacks to terrorism and climate-related instability. Defense Tech Investments: Scale up Europe’s defense industry and cut reliance on non-EU suppliers. NATO Alignment: Ensure EU efforts complement existing NATO commitments. Joint Defense Initiatives: Foster collaboration among member states in arms development and military tech.
Kubilius’ portfolio reflects a bold leap toward European strategic autonomy. Yet, fears persist that bolstering EU defense capabilities could undermine NATO’s central role and strain transatlantic ties.
Industrial Policy: France Flexes Its Muscles
France scored a win with Stéphane Séjourné’s appointment as Commissioner for Industrial Policy. The move underscores Paris’ determination to dominate the EU’s industrial sovereignty narrative, a crucial lever for competing with economic powerhouses like the U.S. and China.
Séjourné’s Mandate:
- Expand microelectronics production and green technology innovation.
- Push Europe’s industries to meet climate goals while minimizing disruptions.
- Fortify economic security by reducing dependency on global supply chains.
The appointment follows a bitter fallout between Thierry Breton, a key player in the previous Commission, and von der Leyen, with clashes over technological independence and industrial policy. Séjourné, viewed as a more cooperative figure, represents a recalibrated French push for influence, signaling a shift toward balancing national priorities with broader EU goals.
The Broader Shift: A Union Tilting Right
The revamped European Commission encapsulates the political rightward shift sweeping through Europe. The summer’s European Parliament elections saw a surge in support for right-centrist parties, led by the European People’s Party (EPP). Once a bastion of moderate conservatism, the EPP, under Manfred Weber, has recalibrated to appease growing nationalist and populist currents.
New EPP Priorities:
- Tightened migration controls, including stricter border enforcement and redistribution mechanisms.
- A renewed focus on defense autonomy, including expanded EU-NATO collaboration.
- Economic protectionism, with initiatives like "Invest in Europe" aimed at bolstering domestic industries and reducing reliance on imports.
This pivot reflects the EU’s attempt to stay relevant to increasingly polarized electorates while navigating the fine line between adaptation and fragmentation.
High Stakes, High Expectations
The new European Commission enters a turbulent political landscape, juggling ambitions for unity with the realities of division. With the war in Ukraine, an unfolding energy crisis, climate imperatives, and the restructuring of global security systems dominating the agenda, the stakes have never been higher.
As the EU embarks on this transformative chapter, its ability to walk the tightrope of reform and cohesion will define whether it emerges as a decisive global player—or remains mired in the gridlock of compromise. For leaders like von der Leyen, Kallas, Kubilius, and Séjourné, the coming months will serve as both a proving ground and a pressure cooker.
In Brussels, the clock is ticking—and the world is watching.
Shifting Priorities: A New Balance of Power
The formation of the new European Commission in 2024 is emblematic of a political landscape in flux. Intense debates and hard-fought compromises underscored the process, revealing key priorities and exposing internal rifts. The shifting dynamics mirror both evolving public sentiment and the pressing geopolitical realities confronting the European Union.
One striking outcome was the redistribution of portfolios, reshaping member states' influence within the EU.
- Oliver Várhelyi: Hungary’s former Commissioner for Enlargement, was reassigned to oversee health and animal welfare. The move is widely viewed as a deliberate demotion, signaling the EU’s disapproval of Viktor Orbán’s authoritarian policies.
- Marta Kos: Slovenia’s new Commissioner for Enlargement, now leads the charge on Ukraine’s EU accession. Kos has made clear her commitment to driving reforms in Kyiv and coordinating reconstruction efforts with G7 partners.
Kaja Kallas: The New Face of EU Foreign Policy
The appointment of Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s former Prime Minister, as High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, stands out as a pivotal moment. Known for her unflinching stance against Russia and unwavering support for Ukraine, Kallas embodies the EU’s resolve to adopt a more assertive posture in global affairs.
Key Goals for Kallas:
Bolstering sanctions against Russia. Deepening strategic ties with NATO and the United States. Advancing EU interests in global conflicts by enhancing diplomatic engagement.
While Kallas has been praised for her focus and clarity, her appointment is not without detractors. Critics warn that her sharp rhetoric could alienate neutral states and complicate relations with nations in the Global South.
Formation of the Commission: Balancing National and EU Interests
The creation of the new European Commission involved intense politicking, with national interests often clashing with EU-wide priorities.
- Oliver Várhelyi: Despite opposition from European Parliament members, Hungary retained its seat on the Commission. However, shifting Várhelyi to a less influential portfolio represents a compromise aimed at appeasing critics.
- Raffaele Fitto: The far-right Italian politician’s appointment as Executive Vice-President sparked controversy. Backed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Fitto’s rise reflects the growing clout of nationalist forces in the EU. Critics fear his policies could favor conservative strongholds at the expense of pan-European objectives like climate action.
These appointments underscore how domestic politics and national agendas continue to shape the EU’s institutional makeup.
The Challenges Ahead for the Commission
The revamped Commission faces a daunting array of challenges:
EU Enlargement: Fast-tracking Ukraine and the Western Balkans into the EU demands considerable political will, economic resources, and overcoming skepticism among member states. Climate Agenda: Disputes over funding for the Fit for 55 program and the green transition highlight tensions between Eastern and Western Europe. The Rightward Drift: The rise of nationalist forces in Italy, Hungary, and beyond threatens the EU’s unity and its ability to reach consensus on key policies. Geopolitical Turbulence: The escalating war in Ukraine, strained relations with China, and evolving U.S. priorities demand a nimble and cohesive EU response.
Von der Leyen’s High-Wire Act
For Ursula von der Leyen, securing a second term as Commission President was just the beginning. Her ability to manage the competing priorities of 27 member states while maintaining the EU’s coherence will determine her legacy.
Von der Leyen must prove that this Commission can respond effectively to external pressures while fostering internal stability. The success—or failure—of her leadership will shape whether the EU emerges as a robust global actor or succumbs to internal divisions.
Strategic Autonomy: A Bold New Frontier
The creation of the Defense and Space portfolio is a landmark moment, signaling the EU’s ambition to carve out a more autonomous role in global security. The appointment of Andrius Kubilius, Lithuania’s former Prime Minister, underscores this shift.
Kubilius’ Mandate:
- Defense Industry Cooperation: Foster cross-border investment in arms production and innovation to reduce reliance on external suppliers.
- Defense Technology Advancements: Prioritize cutting-edge developments to address threats like cyberattacks and space competition.
- NATO Alignment: Ensure EU defense strategies complement the Alliance’s commitments.
Kubilius faces resistance from member states wary of undermining NATO’s central role. His success hinges on navigating these concerns while delivering tangible results.
The Baltic Duo: Kallas and Kubilius Lead the Charge
The appointments of Kallas and Kubilius reflect a Baltic-led shift in EU priorities. Both leaders have long championed tougher stances on Russia and a stronger EU defense posture.
- Kallas focuses on transatlantic ties, sanctions against Russia, and robust support for Ukraine.
- Kubilius complements this by driving defense and space policy, aiming to enhance the EU’s internal security infrastructure.
Their leadership will test the EU’s ability to adapt to new challenges while overcoming internal divisions.
Experience Matters: Šefčovič and Dombrovskis as Anchors of Stability
Amid sweeping changes, the retention of seasoned veterans like Maroš Šefčovič and Valdis Dombrovskis provides much-needed continuity.
- Šefčovič: With 15 years in the Commission, he will focus on trade, economic security, and institutional transparency—critical areas during economic turbulence.
- Dombrovskis: The Latvian leader continues to oversee economic reforms, lending stability despite a diminished role in the Commission hierarchy.
Their expertise ensures steadiness as the EU navigates a rapidly evolving political and economic landscape.
Right-Centrism: The New Political Normal
The 2024 European Parliament elections underscored the EU’s political pivot to the right. The European People’s Party (EPP), under Manfred Weber, has shifted its rhetoric to address the rise of nationalist and populist movements.
EPP’s Focus Areas:
Stricter Migration Controls: Tightening borders and redistributing asylum responsibilities among member states. Defense Autonomy: Expanding EU-NATO synergies while bolstering internal defense capabilities. Economic Protectionism: Promoting policies like "Invest in Europe" to strengthen the internal market and reduce dependency on external suppliers.
This shift reflects the Union’s attempt to stay relevant in an era of polarized electorates and rising global challenges.
A Pivotal Era for the EU
The European Union stands at a crossroads, navigating between stability and transformation. The new Commission, led by figures like Kallas, Kubilius, and von der Leyen, must balance the competing demands of internal cohesion and external pressures.
The success of this Commission will determine whether the EU consolidates its role as a global power—or falters under the weight of its ambitions. The clock is ticking, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
New Focus Areas of the EPP: A Strategic Shift
Tougher Migration Policy: Stricter border control and redistribution of migration flows, reflecting rising voter demand for greater immigration oversight. Strengthened Defense Cooperation: Prioritizing the EU’s strategic autonomy in defense to counter global security threats. Economic Protectionism: Supporting the internal market, reducing reliance on external suppliers, and investing in European industries.
These policy shifts highlight the European People’s Party’s (EPP) efforts to retain relevance by appealing to more radical voter bases, adopting sharper, less centrist rhetoric to counter the rise of nationalist movements across the Union.
Key Priorities of the New European Commission
1. Migration Policy Reform. Migration remains one of the EU’s thorniest issues. The new European Commission is doubling down on tightening border controls and redistributing migration flows among member states. These measures aim to restore socio-economic stability while aligning with public demand for more stringent migration policies.
2. Defense and Security: Strategic Autonomy. The newly created position of Commissioner for Defense and Space, held by Andrius Kubilius, signals the EU’s intent to assert greater independence in security matters. Key initiatives include:
- Joint investments in the defense industry to foster innovation and collaboration.
- Strengthening European defense technologies to reduce reliance on non-EU suppliers.
- Aligning EU defense efforts with NATO commitments to avoid redundancy while maintaining transatlantic ties.
Despite its ambition, this agenda faces pushback from member states wary of diluting NATO’s primacy or weakening the U.S.-EU security partnership.
3. Economic Protectionism. In response to global economic instability and mounting competition from China and the U.S., the EU is recalibrating its economic policies:
- Strengthening the internal market to boost resilience.
- Reducing dependency on external suppliers to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities.
- Promoting initiatives like the "Invest in Europe" policy to protect European industries and spur domestic innovation.
These strategies aim to secure the EU’s economic stability and technological independence in a volatile global environment.
Global Challenges: A New Agenda for the EU
The Commission takes office at a time of unprecedented global crises:
War in Ukraine: Supporting Ukraine’s EU membership bid and reconstruction remains a top priority. Energy Crisis: Finding sustainable, long-term solutions to reduce fossil fuel dependence and enhance energy security. Climate Change: Implementing the Fit for 55 program and fostering the adoption of green technologies across the Union. Restructuring Global Security: Developing a unified defense strategy led by Kaja Kallas and Andrius Kubilius to position the EU as a key player in international security frameworks.
Right-Centrism and the Future of the EU
The political shift to the right within the EU’s institutions reflects a recalibration to address growing public discontent and geopolitical instability. By prioritizing migration control, defense autonomy, and economic protectionism, the right-centrist agenda seeks to position the Union as a stabilizing force in uncertain times.
The Commission’s Challenges:
Maintaining Unity: Bridging divides among member states amidst the rise of nationalist trends. Responding to External Pressures: Balancing strategic autonomy with commitments to NATO and the U.S. Pursuing Internal Reforms: Managing differing national priorities to maintain progress on shared EU goals.
The Path Forward
The new European Commission enters its mandate with lofty ambitions and a daunting to-do list. Strengthened by a right-centrist political wave, the focus on security, migration, and economic protectionism underscores a pragmatic response to today’s realities.
Success Hinges On:
- Adapting swiftly to evolving challenges while navigating internal political tensions.
- Reassuring citizens through decisive actions that address immediate concerns.
- Reasserting the EU’s leadership role on the global stage through cohesive, impactful policies.
Through strategic planning and collaborative governance, the Commission can turn this period of transformation into an opportunity to solidify the EU’s stature as a global power. The stakes are high, but so is the potential for renewed unity and leadership in an increasingly fragmented world.