BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 28. Today, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian is embarking on an official visit to Azerbaijan, opening a new chapter in the relationship between the two neighboring countries. The timing of the visit coincides with a period of rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus, where economic interests and strategic considerations demand agility and foresight from all players.
Azerbaijan and Iran approach this moment with different expectations, yet they agree on one thing: the era of uncertainty in politics has passed, and now is the time to build real, mutually beneficial alliances.
In 2025, the South Caucasus is not merely a region of conflicting interests among global powers but a crossroads where China's trade routes, Russia's aspirations, Türkiye's influence, and Azerbaijan's growing independence intersect. Azerbaijan's victory in the 44-day war and the full restoration of its territorial integrity have shifted the power balance in the region. Armenia has lost its status as the "victim of conflict," and Karabakh, which remained under Armenian occupation for 30 years, has firmly returned under Baku's sovereignty.
In light of this new reality, Iran faces a tough decision: continue its cautious approach or decisively build strong, pragmatic relations with Azerbaijan. Tehran, which has long tried to maneuver between the two sides, now understands that a stable, strong, and sovereign Azerbaijan is not a threat, but rather an opportunity. Masoud Pezeshkian's visit to Baku symbolizes Iran's acceptance of this new reality.
Economic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Iran is visibly thriving. In 2024, bilateral trade reached around $580 million, marking a 20 percent increase compared to the previous year. While this figure is still modest compared to Azerbaijan's trade volumes with Türkiye, China, and Russia, both countries have set ambitious targets. Over the next five years, they aim to increase trade to $10 billion, a goal that will require overcoming administrative hurdles, improving logistics, and fostering private investment.
Iran’s Minister of Roads and Urban Development, Farzaneh Sadegh, has clearly stated that, amid ongoing Western sanctions, Iran sees Azerbaijan as a key partner for accessing new markets and diversifying its economy.
Infrastructure projects are among the most significant examples of new cooperation, with the Rasht-Astara railway being a particularly important project. The long-awaited railway, set for completion in 2025, will connect Iran to Russia and Europe via Azerbaijan, turning the South Caucasus into a crucial transport hub for Eurasia. Another vital project involves hydroelectric energy: the Khudafarin and Giz Galasi Dam on the Araz river, which will provide water and electricity to more than 400,000 hectares of land, a project of critical importance given changing climate conditions. Additionally, the East Zangezur–Nakhchivan transport corridor, passing through Iranian territory, offers an alternative route that will enhance regional logistics and strengthen Azerbaijan’s internal connectivity.
These projects show that Baku and Tehran are pursuing a forward-looking strategy, laying the foundation for long-term partnerships through infrastructure development.
Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit also emphasizes the role of business in fostering this cooperation. The Iranian delegation includes over 120 private sector representatives, as well as governors and parliamentarians from Iran’s northwestern provinces. This is not just a symbolic gesture but a significant call for the active involvement of private investments. Iran understands that the $10 billion trade target cannot be reached without the active participation of businesses.
During the visit, joint industrial parks will be established in the border regions, new logistics centers will be built, and numerous agreements on agricultural projects are expected to be signed.
In other words, Baku and Tehran are choosing a model of cooperation based not only on intergovernmental agreements but also on a dynamic economy, real people, and tangible capital. This is the most reliable foundation for long-term relations.
The history of Iranian presidential visits to Azerbaijan reflects a cautious but consistent approach:
2007: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits Baku, with significant agreements on energy and visa facilitation.
2018: Hassan Rouhani signs new agreements in industry, agriculture, and tourism.
2024: Ebrahim Raisi meets with President Ilham Aliyev directly at the state border, symbolizing respect for Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.
Now, Masoud Pezeshkian takes the baton. His visit to Baku is not merely a continuation of tradition but marks the beginning of a new phase where diplomacy turns into pragmatic economics and caution transforms into deliberate strategic choice.
Analyzing Azerbaijani-Iranian relations is incomplete without considering Tehran's stance on the Karabakh issue. For years, Iran pursued an ambiguous policy: recognizing Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity on one hand while flirting with Armenia in response to Türkiye's growing influence in the region.
After Azerbaijan's historic victory in the 44-day war, Iran faced a new reality: Karabakh is Azerbaijan's, and no behind-the-scenes maneuvering can alter this fact.
Today, Tehran seems to be gradually coming to terms with this reality. Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit to Baku can be seen as an attempt to close the old chapter and offer sincere partnership to Azerbaijan based on sovereignty and mutual interests.
This is a significant shift. However, trust is not built in a day, and a long, challenging path lies ahead to test intentions and sincerity.
Along with these developments, Azerbaijan is rapidly deepening its cooperation with China. The comprehensive strategic partnership declaration signed between Baku and Beijing in 2024 has had a seismic geopolitical impact. Azerbaijan has become a key link in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in the Middle (Trans-Caspian) Corridor, which objectively reduces Baku's dependence on any regional player, including Iran.
Tehran understands this very well: Azerbaijan now has alternative development paths and is increasingly able to defend its interests more assertively.
In this context, a critical question arises for Iran: How can it become an attractive, beneficial, and respected partner for Azerbaijan?
A new order is taking shape in the South Caucasus, and the world is changing rapidly and decisively. Those who cannot adapt will be left behind in history.
Relying on its successful experiences in energy, transport, and international diplomacy, Azerbaijan is becoming one of the key architects of this new order. If Iran wants to maintain its sphere of influence, it must abandon its old dual policies and approach Azerbaijan with open hands and real proposals, not empty statements.
President Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit to Azerbaijan is not just another diplomatic courtesy. It is a moment of reckoning.
Today, both Azerbaijan and Iran face the same question: Will we remain mere neighbors, or will we become true strategic allies? Are we ready to build a new order in the region, free from frozen conflicts, double standards, and covert games?
The answer to this question will shape the future of the South Caucasus for decades to come.
Azerbaijan moves forward with confidence, open eyes, and steady hands. Now, Iran must make its choice.
Looking at the first step—Pezeshkian’s visit—it appears that there is still an opportunity to build a sustainable and mutually beneficial partnership.
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