Weekly review of Azerbaijan's energy market

Economy Materials 31 October 2022 10:18 (UTC +04:00)
Weekly review of Azerbaijan's energy market
Maryana Ahmadova
Maryana Ahmadova
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 31. Last week Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban said that the country is interested in importing electricity from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Romania, using infrastructure of new high-capacity transmission lines, Trend reports via Georgian media.

In addition, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Hungary Tamás Torma said that Hungarian natural gas transmission system will soon be ready to receive Azerbaijani natural gas from the southern direction.

"In this context, we welcome the commissioning of the Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector (IGB) on October 1 and look forward to the completion of other infrastructure projects in South-East-Europe. At the same time, we hope that Azerbaijan will soon be able to supply enough gas to meet the increased European demands," ambassador said.

A number of other important statements were made regarding the IGB project. Thus, the report of the China-CEE Institute think tank said that IGB is set to create new market opportunities and will enhance international partnerships in the South-East Europe. The Institute’s report says that as part of the development of the Southern Gas Corridor through IGB, Bulgaria and its neighboring countries will have access to alternative supplies from the Caspian region as well as from existing or planned liquefied natural gas terminal (LNG) terminals.

In turn, executive director of ICGB Teodora Georgieva said that IGB will not need modifications for some increase in supplies. According to her, the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) has an initial capacity of 3 bcm/year and accordingly, there is no technical problem and no additional modifications are needed to transport not only 300 - 400 mcm, but also more significant additional volumes of natural gas from Azerbaijan coming via Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).

Meanwhile, Spanish Enagas, one of the TAP shareholders informed that the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) consortium continues to work on a potential expansion of its infrastructure, with different scenarios that could increase capacity by up to 20 bcm per year. Enagas said in its latest report that the binding phase of the market test is expected to be launched by the end of 2022.

In addition, Enagas revealed the volume of TAP’s gas supply to Greece, Italy. Thus, with 98 percent average utilization and 100 percent availability, TAP delivered 7.9 bcm of natural gas in to Europe up to September 30: 7 bcm to Italy (around 15 percent country demand) and 0.9 bcm to Greece (about 20 percent country demand).

Moreover, according to the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), over eight million tons of oil and almost 11 billion cubic meters of gas were produced in Azerbaijan in the third quarter of 2022.

In turn, of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) revealed the revenues from the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli (ACG) field in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, which equaled $7.528 billion from January through September 2022.

Last week it became known that according to STEPS scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Azerbaijan is set to produce 35 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2030. In 2050, the output is forecast at 24 billion cubic meters in the same scenario.

At the same time, the report of the World Bank (WB) stated that Azerbaijan's gas production will sustain small but positive growth until 2050.

In addition, regarding SOCAR's production, Fitch Ratings forecasts a growth of 4 percent in 2022 and 5 percent in 2023, mainly due to higher natural gas output, and will remain stable thereafter.

According to the draft state budget of Azerbaijan for 2023, published this week, given the volatility of global oil prices, the price of a barrel of oil was set at $50. The transfers from SOFAZ to the state budget will amount to 11.3 billion manat ($6.6 billion), which is 237.5 million manat ($139.7 million) less than this year.